The professional handicappers at Oskeim Sports have the winning information you need before betting on Saturday’s college football games. Oskeim’s NCAA Football game previews and Betting Market Report gives you the winning edge.
Miami Florida at Texas A&M (-6.5) (-110)
Analysis: Texas A&M quarterback Haynes King completed 13-of-20 passes for only 7.5 yards per completion against Appalachian State, prompting head coach Jimbo Fisher to bench King in favor of former LSU quarterback Max Johnson. The change at quarterback can only help a stagnant offense and the Aggies’ defense is one of the best in the land. Texas A&M limited Appalachian State to just 4.2 yards per play and 17 points last week, the same Mountaineers’ attack that put up 61 points at 8.0 yards per play against North Carolina.
Texas A&M’s 17-14 loss to Appalachian State was determined, in part, by variance. Appalachian State went 9-for-20 on third down conversions and 3-for-5 on fourth downs. The Aggies converted just 25 percent of their third downs (2-for-8). Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke has been very good this season, but he’ll be missing his most reliable receiver in Xavier Restrepo (foot injury). The Hurricanes’ offense has struggled to generate big plays, producing just four gains of 20-plus yards last week against Southern Mississippi (FBS teams averaged 4.8 gains of 20-plus yards in Week 2).
Miami is 0-7 ATS as a non-conference road underdog, 0-4 ATS on the road following consecutive home wins, 1-5 ATS as a non-conference underdog of four or more points, and 2-4 ATS in its last six games versus SEC opponents. The Hurricanes are also a money-burning 1-8 ATS as road underdogs in September affairs with a total of fewer than 61.5 points. In contrast, Texas A&M is a profitable 15-6-1 ATS versus non-conference opponents since the start of the 2017 season, including 12-1 ATS as a non-conference home favorite of fewer than fourteen points.
Finally, college football home favorites off an upset loss are a perfect 9-0 ATS in Weeks 1-4 with a total of 51 points or fewer if the point spread is longer than the previous week. Lay the points with Texas A&M and invest with confidence.
Miami Alert: ACC road underdogs between +5 to +9.5 points are 10-1 ATS following an against-the-spread loss if their opponent’s line is longer than the previous week. Texas A&M is 0-8 ATS following an upset in games with a total of less than 65 and a point spread between -41 and +18. Since 2006, SEC home favorites off a loss are 0-6 ATS versus ACC opponents.
Tulane (+14) (-110) at Kansas State
Analysis: My math model only favors Kansas State by 11.17 points and Tulane is a profitable 9-4 ATS in its last thirteen non-conference clashes, 5-2 ATS in its last seven September affairs and 4-0 ATS in its previous four games overall. The scheduling dynamics strongly favor Tulane as the Wildcats are coming off an impressive 40-12 win over Missouri and have their Big 12 Conference opener on deck against Oklahoma.
The Green Wave are coming off a misleading 2-10 campaign in which they were 0-5 in one-possession games and -9 in turnovers. Despite last year’s disappointing season, Tulane did not suffer much attrition via the transfer portal, which speaks to the positive culture head coach Willie Fritz has built in New Orleans. Tulane ranks 34th in returning production (70%) with eighteen returning starters, including two of its best defenders in end Darius Hodges (15 tackles for loss, five sacks, 12 run stuffs) and nickel Jadon Canady (four TFLs, two INTs, five pass breakups).
Tulane’s offense is loaded with talent and is led by quarterback Michael Pratt and running back Tyjae Spears, both of whom work behind a veteran offensive line that boasts four returning starters and 108 career starts. Not surprisingly, Tulane is off to a 2-0 start, outgaining its opponents by over 300 yards per game this season. The Green Wave won’t be intimidated by Saturday’s venue as they traveled to Oklahoma last season and nearly upset the Sooners 40-35 as 32-point underdogs. Grab the points with Tulane and invest with confidence.
NCAA Football Betting Trends & Nuggets for Saturday, September 17
- Appalachian State, Marshall and Washington State each won outright as a 17-point underdog last week and each is a double-digit favorite this week. Over the past ten years, such teams are 11-2-1 ATS in the second game (same season), including 6-0 ATS over the last five seasons.
- California head coach Justin Wilcox is 23-9 ATS as an underdog (13 outright wins), including 10-3 ATS as an underdog of at least 9.5 points (5 outright wins).
- Georgia has allowed 9.6 points per game in its past 10 regular-season SEC games.
- Under Ryan Day, Ohio State has played three Ohio schools – Akron, Cincinnati and Miami – winning those contests by a 177-12 margin and easily covering spreads of 48, 15 and 39 points.
- Under James Franklin, Penn State is 7-6 SU and 4-9 ATS in thirteen regular-season games as a road favorite of less than seven points.
- Georgia is 11-18 ATS (28-1 SU) under Kirby Smart when favored by 20 or more points.
- Double-digit home underdogs are 2-7-1 ATS this season.
- Under Nick Saban, Alabama has been favored by 47 or more points 14 times, going 4-10 ATS in those games.
- The over is 30-13-1 in Texas Tech games against AP-ranked opponents since the start of the 2011 season.
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