NCAA Football Game Previews & Betting Market Report

Sep 23, 2022

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Oskeim Sports provides NCAA football game previews and free sports picks in Saturday’s college football card. Oskeim’s betting market report gives you the winning edge.

Missouri (+7) (-110) at Auburn

Analysis: Auburn head coach Bryan Harsin’s job security is tenuous at best following last week’s 41-12 home loss to Penn State, the Tigers’ fifth-straight defeat to a Power Five team.  Penn State dominated the line of scrimmage, rushing for 245 yards at 6.3 yards per carry, which is the most the Tigers have allowed since a 2020 loss to Texas A&M.  Auburn is 0-3 ATS this season, falling short of market expectations by an average of 15.5 points per game.

After forcing out the athletic director who hired Harsin last month, Auburn boosters are circling above like vultures.  Auburn has won just two of its past eight games, scoring 24 points or less in six of them.

Auburn Head Coaches & Records

  • Terry Bowden: 47-17-1
  • Tommy Tuberville: 85-40
  • Gene Chizik: 33-19 (national title)
  • Gus Malzahn: 68-35
  • Bryan Harsin: 8-8

Auburn is coming off its first losing season since 2012 and Harsin is 6-11 ATS as a favorite following a loss, including 2-7 ATS at home.  Since 1980, college football teams coming off their first loss of the season are just 139-154-4 ATS at home in Game Four, including 45-69-2 ATS if they allowed 35 or more points in their initial defeat and 20-39-1 ATS versus conference opponents.  If their first loss was by more than 21 points, these teams drop to 10-26 SU and 10-25-1 ATS in conference affairs.

Finally, Missouri applies to a very good 70-45 ATS (60.9%) system of mine that dates to the beginning of the 2012 season.  Grab the points with Missouri and invest with confidence.

Duke (+7) (-110) at Kansas

Analysis: Just three weeks into the season, Kansas has already hit the over for its preseason win total at Caesars Sportsbook.  The Jayhawks are off to their first 3-0 start since 2009, which also marks the last time they won more than three games in a single season.  Kansas has covered the spread in each of its three wins this season by an average of +23.0 points per game.

However, the Jayhawks’ defense has allowed 72 points and 6.4 yards per play to two FBS opponents and last week’s 48-30 upset win over Houston was closer than the final score indicates.  Houston finished with a better Offensive Success Rate (49% to 45%) but committed two turnovers that resulted in fourteen points for the Jayhawks.

Both teams finished with similar defensive Havoc rates, but Kansas was 7-for-13 on third down conversions and 1-for-1 on fourth down conversions.  Post-game metrics project a single-digit win for the Jayhawks so their 18-point victory is not indicative of how the teams played.

Mike Elko is the first Duke football coach since Fred Goldsmith in 1994 to win his opening three games.  Duke has scored at least 30 points in every game this season and quarterback Riley Leonard is completing 73% of his passes at 15.1 yards per completion.  Jalon Calhoun and Eli Pancol have combined for 19 catches and 360 yards, and the Blue Devils are averaging 8.1 yards per play with Leonard under center.

The difference in this game will be the Blue Devils’ improved defense.  Through its first three games, Duke is allowing 4.4 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 4.4 yards per play against a mediocre stop unit.  Meanwhile, the Jayhawks yielded 947 yards at 6.4 yards per play the past two weeks.

Since 2011, Kansas is 1-23 SU and 6-17-1 ATS versus undefeated opposition and 2-10 ATS in its last twelve games as a favorite.  Duke is 5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference affairs and 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four clashes with Big 12 Conference opponents, including 2-0 SU and ATS in this series.  Grab the points with the Blue Devils and invest with confidence.

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