NCAA Football Game Preview: Bowling Green at Miami Ohio – 11/16

Nov 16, 2021

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Game: Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawks  

Time: 8:00 p.m. ET 

Odds: Falcons +17, RedHawks -17 

Total: 51.5 

Miami (OH) can take another step closer to getting back to the MAC championship game with a win over Bowling Green (3-7, 1-5) tonight. The RedHawks won the MAC title in 2019. Currently, Miami is 4-2 in the MAC East and tied with Kent State, the RedHawks’ opponent in their final regular-season game. 

The RedHawks have everything going for them as they enter this game tonight. They are playing at home where they are 5-0 this season. Miami has the better offense and the better defense heading into this game. The RedHawks average only 26.8 points per game, but recently they have scored 33 points or more in three of their last four games.  

Leading the offense is QB Brett Gabbert who threw for four touchdowns in last week’s 45-18 win over Buffalo. Gabbert has thrown for 1,786 yards and 18 touchdowns so far this season. His No. 1 receiver is senior Jack Sorenson who has 61 catches for 1,098 yards and eight touchdowns. If the RedHawks could be better in one area of the game, it’s running the football. Keyon Mozee leads the team with 422 yards. Miami averages just 145 rushing yards per game. 

Despite their problems on the ground, Miami’s running game is better than Bowling Green’s. In fact, the RedHawks are better than the Falcons in just about every facet of the game. Bowling Green ranks 122nd in the nation in rushing yards per game – 98.4. Terion Stewart is the team’s leading rusher with 324 yards. 

QB Matt McDonald is the lone bright spot on the Falcons offense. He has thrown for 2,192 yards and 11 touchdowns. That has not been enough to help the offense score points. Bowling Green averages 22.9 points per game. The Falcons have scored more than 27 points just once. That was in a 56-44 win over Buffalo.  

If the offense is bad, the defense is even worse. Bowling Green allows 32.4 points and 391.9 yards of offense per game. The Falcons have given up 35 or more points in each of their last five games. The opponent point totals in Bowling Green’s last three games are 49, 44, and 55. The bottom line is that Miami (OH) can have a field day against this Bowling Green defense. 

What is interesting about the Falcons is that they have covered the spread in seven of their ten games this season. They covered the first five in a row and are just 2-3 ATS in their last five. The Falcons have been a double-digit underdog (like they are tonight) six times this season. They are 5-1 ATS in those games.  

Miami (OH) is just 4-6 ATS this season, but the RedHawks have covered in two of their last three games. The RedHawks have been a double-digit favorite twice before this season. They did not cover in either game.  

One thing to watch is the total. Bowling Green’s defense has been so bad lately that their last five games have all gone Over the posted total. In only one of those five games did the Falcons score more than 26 points.