Game: Baylor Bears @ Oklahoma State Cowboys
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Odds: Bears -4, Cowboys +4
Total: 138.5
Can Oklahoma State pull off the season sweep of the Bears? The Cowboys beat the Baylor the first time around winning 61-54 back on Jan. 15 in Waco. Oklahoma State was a 14-point underdog. Tonight, the Cowboys will be a four-point home underdog against a Baylor team that is dealing with some injuries. The Bears lost Tchamwa Tchatchoua for the season and leading scorer LJ Cryer did not play in the Bears last game, a 72-62 win over TCU. Adam Flagler also missed that game and he and Cryer are both questionable for tonight.
The Cowboys are coming off an 82-79 win over Kansas State on Saturday. Bryce Thompson had 23 and Avery Anderson added 20 in the overtime victory. Anderson hit a three-pointer to win the game. As exciting as it was, the Cowboys have only won three of their last nine games. They have also covered in just three of those nine games. Oklahoma State hasn’t been good against the number all season long. They are 9-17 ATS for the year and just 5-9 ATS at home.
Oklahoma State has actually won two of the last three against Baylor and could be catching them at the right time. If Cryer and Flagler don’t play, that will be a boost for the Cowboys. Playing at home is also a plus. OSU is 9-5 in home games this season. Plus, after a big home win on Saturday, the Cowboys may have some momentum heading into tonight.
Baylor has won three of its last four games but is just 2-2 ATS in those four games. All three wins came by at least 10 points. While the Bears have had their share of injuries, they also have shown depth. Freshman Jeremy Sochan was the leading scorer in the win over TCU. He had 17 points while senior Matthew Mayer added 16.
Like Oklahoma State, Baylor hasn’t been outstanding against the spread. The Bears are 22-5 SU but just 14-12-1 ATS for the season. They are only 5-4 ATS on the road this season, but Baylor does have a sweet spot. They have excelled as a road favorite this season. In seven such games, Baylor is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS.
The Cowboys can be stingy on defense as they showed in the first meeting against Baylor holding the Bears to just 54 points. Remember though that OSU is just 8-12 SU since starting this season 5-1. As an underdog this year, the Cowboys are just 2-9 SU. One of those wins was against Baylor though.
The way these two teams play defense you would think they trend Under. That’s not the case for the Cowboys. The total has gone Over in six of their last eight games. Baylor has seen the Over hit in two of its last three and the Over is 15-12 for the season in Bears games. The total has gone Over in five of the last six head-to-head meetings.