Game: Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks
Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
Odds: Mavericks +6, Suns -6
The overall favorite to win the NBA Finals, Phoenix can advance to the Western Conference finals with a win over Dallas in Game 6 tonight. It won’t be easy. The home team has won every game in the series so far. The Suns won big, 110-80, in Game 5 in Phoenix and they would love nothing more than to close out the series early. Dallas will be looking for some payback and a chance to force a deciding Game 7.
The Mavs shot 25 percent from three-point range and 38 percent overall in Game 5. They should shoot better at home. Dallas also got handled on the boards where Phoenix collected 50 rebounds and the Mavs just 35. Luka Doncic was once again the offense for Dallas putting up 28 points. Jalen Brunson scored 21, but the rest of the Dallas offense was silent. As they have seen throughout the postseason, Doncic cannot be the only option if the Mavericks are going to beat Phoenix.
In Game 5, Dallas was down by only three at the half, 49-46. Then, the Mavs committed 12 turnovers in the third quarter alone and the rout was on. Devin Booker led Phoenix with 28 points and Deandre Ayton added 20. Phoenix will have to figure out how to break down the Dallas defense. The Mavs defense has been outstanding at home. In the Mavericks’ two wins, Dallas held Phoenix to a season-low 94 points in Game 3 and 101 in Game 4.
With the Game 5 win, Phoenix is now 5-2 SU and ATS in its last seven games. In their last 14 games against Dallas, the Suns are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS. Dallas is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home. The Mavs are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games. They are also 31-13 SU at home for the season, but Dallas is averaging just 103.4 points per game in this series and they might not cut it against a team that can score like Phoenix. For the season, the Suns average 114.4 points per game, and remember they are the top shooting team (48.8 percent) in the NBA.
The last three games in the series have gone Under the total. The first two games both went Over as Phoenix scored over 120 points in each game. With Game 6 back in Dallas, tonight’s total is 212 which is the lowest of the series. The Mavs allow just 101.3 points per game at home.
In NBA playoff series where a team wins Game 1, that team is more than 75 percent likely to win the series. When that team wins Games 1 and 2, they win the series 92 percent of the time. Phoenix, which has owned Dallas lately, also won Game 5 to go up 3-2 in the series. Teams that do so go on to win their playoff series more than 82 percent of the time.