Game: Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Odds: 76ers +3, Heat -3
After falling behind 0-2, the Philadelphia 76ers went home and got their star player back. With Joel Embiid in the lineup in Games 3 and 4, the Sixers have turned the tide in this conference semifinal series. Embiid rejuvenated the Philadelphia lineup and playing in front of their home crowd the 76ers recorded consecutive victories over the Miami Heat.
One of the biggest factors in this series thus far has been the poor shooting of Miami, especially from behind the three-point arc. For the series, the Heat is shooting 29 percent from three-point range. Jimmy Butler shot well in Game 4, 13-of-20, and finished with 40 points but Miami still lost. That’s because the rest of the Heat lineup was off.
What’s interesting so far in the series is the curious case of Duncan Robinson. Last offseason, the Heat deemed Robinson so valuable they signed him to a five-year, $90 million contract. The big reason for the deal? Robinson’s ability to shoot threes. With Miami struggling from the perimeter, it’s interesting to note that Robinson has played exactly one minute in this entire series.
Miami is shooting 44 percent overall and, on the other end, the Heat is having an issue defending the three-pointer from Philadelphia. The Sixers are hitting over 41 percent of their three-point attempts in the series. James Harden finally came out of his shell where he has been for the better part of a month. In Game 4, Harden went 6-of-10 from three-point range and finished with 31 points. It’s the first time Harden has scored more than 22 points in a game in a month.
As bad as Miami has been shooting and as bad as they have been defending the Sixers’ threes, the Heat was still able to cut Philadelphia’s lead to five with about three minutes left in Game 4. Miami may have to battle in Game 5 without Kyle Lowry. He left Game 4 with the same hamstring problem that kept him out of the first two games of the series. With all their recent issues, remember Miami is still 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games. The Heat have been strong at home all season with 34-12 SU mark and they have won each of their last eight games at FTX Arena.
The Sixers are 11-5 SU in their last 16 games, but they haven’t had the same amount of success against the number. Philly is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten road games. Plus, the 76ers have only won once in their last eight trips to Miami.
Games 1 and 3 of the series went Under the total. In both of those games, at least one opponent failed to score 100 points. In Games 2 and 4, both teams scored at least 103 points and both totals went Over. Both teams are trending Under. Six of the last nine Sixers games have gone Under the total and seven of the last nine for the Heat.