Game: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Odds: TWolves +2.5, Nuggets -2.5
After enjoying an outstanding second-half run this season, the Minnesota Timberwolves have cooled off lately. The TWolves have lost four of their last five games and are desperately in need of a win. Minnesota can’t finish any worse that seventh in the Western Conference, but the TWolves would love to avoid the play-in tournament. Currently, they are 2.5 games behind Utah for the No. 6 seed. After tonight’s game with Denver, Minnesota will have three straight games against teams under .500 before they close the regular season with Chicago.
Denver comes into tonight having won its last three straight and four of its last five. The only loss was to Western Conference leader Phoenix. The Nuggets’ offense has been pouring it on as of late averaging over 118 points per game over the last ten. The problem for Denver is that the defense is giving up over 117 per game.
The Nuggets have owned Minnesota over the past several seasons. In the last ten head-to-head meetings, Denver is 8-2 SU. Those two Minnesota victories have come this season. The TWolves have won two of three games this year. They won the last game the two teams played back in February. The TWolves won 130-115 at home as a 1.5-point favorite.
Minnesota has covered six of those ten games played against Denver and what’s interesting is that the TWolves have covered the spread in each of the last five games that have been played in Denver. Minnesota has been off its game recently and, in addition to going 1-4 SU in the last five games, the TWolves are also 1-4 ATS. Minnesota is, however, 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games.
The Nuggets haven’t been all that great against the number this season. They are 35-42 ATS overall and 14-23 ATS in home games this season. In the Nuggets’ current three-game win streak, they covered just once. They have covered just twice in their last seven games. In addition, the Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games at home.
Minnesota is the third-highest scoring offense in the NBA this season. The TWolves average 115.2 points per game right now. Prior to their current 1-4 skid, Minnesota reeled off four straight victories. In those four games – wins over Miami and Milwaukee included – the TWolves averaged 131 points per game.
The TWolves are the top Over team in the NBA, which shouldn’t come as a surprise. Minnesota has a 45-32 O/U record this season. Denver isn’t far behind with the fourth-highest Over percentage (56%) and a 42-33-2 O/U mark. The Over is 22-14 in Nuggets home games this season and Minnesota’s road O/U record is 28-11. As a road underdog this season, Minnesota has seen the total go Over in 16 of 24 games.
The total has gone Over in 11 of Minnesota’s last 15 road games, but the Under has hit in eight of the TWolves’ last 12 games overall. The Over is 6-2 in Denver’s last eight games and five of the last seven games in this series have resulted in the Over.