NBA Game Preview: Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics

May 11, 2022

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Game: Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics 

Time:  7:00 p.m. ET 

Odds:  Bucks +5.5, Celtics -5.5 

Total: 214.5 

Boston flipped home-court advantage back in their favor with a huge 116-108 win in Game 4 of their conference semifinal series against Milwaukee. The Celtics got a career playoff-high of 30 points from Al Horford as the Bucks once again collapsed in the fourth quarter to lose at home. With the series tied at 2-2, it returns to Boston where the Celtics will play two of the next three games if needed. 

Horford played inspired after a dunk by Giannis Antetokounmpo early in the game. The Bucks star dunked over Horford and then stared him down. Antetokounmpo received a technical foul as a result and Horford turned up his game from then on. He would go on to hit 11 of his 14 shots – including 5-of-7 from three-point range – for his 30 points. He added eight rebounds too. Jayson Tatum had 30 points as well for the winners. 

Boston will need to play a similar game tonight at the TD Garden. The Celtics have done well at home this season going 31-14 SU at the Garden. They are 5-1 SU in their last six games there. The Celtics play great defense at home allowing opponents just 103.6 points per game, which ranks third in the NBA. In the playoffs, Boston has allowed more than 108 points just twice in eight games and they won both of those. 

Boston has also proven that it can keep up with high-scoring offenses like the Brooklyn Nets in their first playoff series and now the Bucks. Milwaukee has proven it can play defense with the best of them. In six of nine playoff games this year, the Bucks have allowed 101 points or less. It’s why Milwaukee has been so successful this playoff season. That defense will play a key role in trying to win a road playoff game tonight. 

The Bucks are 5-2 SU in their last seven games, but they have not done well against the number against Boston. Milwaukee is only 1-10 ATS in the last 11 games against Boston. Playing on the road, Milwaukee is just 1-5 ATS in the last six games at TD Garden. 

Game 4 in Milwaukee was the first of the series to go Over the total. As a result, tonight’s total has ticked upward to 214.5. In the first two games of the series, at least one of the two teams failed to reach 90 points. As a result, of course, both games went Under the total. Both teams have been trending Under even before this series. The total has gone Under in eight of the last nine Milwaukee games. Boston has seen the total go Under in five of its last seven games.  

Interestingly, Boston has one of the better ATS records – 49-39-2 – in the league, but they are just 20-23-2 ATS at home. Milwaukee’s season ATS record is 43-48, but the Bucks are 26-19 ATS in road games this season.