Game: Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
Odds: Grizzlies +10.5, Warriors -10.5
Total: 224.5
It was the talk of Game 3. Jordan Poole swiped at the ball being dribbled by Memphis star Ja Morant as Poole and a teammate attempted to trap Morant. Poole grabbed Morant’s knee and the Grizzlies’ leading scorer went to the bench. Now, Morant will likely miss tonight’s game and, as a result, Golden State is a huge 10.5-point favorite over Memphis in Game 4 of their Western Conference semifinals series.
The Warriors would end up pounding the Grizzlies by 30 in Game 3. Golden State now holds a 2-1 lead in the series and can go up 3-1 with a win tonight. Morant is officially listed as doubtful though it appears he is unlikely to play. It’s really nothing all that new for Memphis. They have played without Morant at various times this season. In fact, Memphis is 20-5 SU in games without the NBA’s Most Improved Player this season. Against teams that made the postseason, that record is 8-4 with one of those wins over Golden State. However, the Warriors sat Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green in that game.
After being one of the best defensive teams in the league during the regular season, the Warriors have the best offensive rating of all playoff teams scoring 121 points per 100 possessions. When Curry, Thompson, Green, Poole, and Andrew Wiggins are on the floor together, the Warriors have a ridiculous Net Rating of +13.7. Their offensive rating is even more eye-opening – 137.2
With the Game 3 victory, the Warriors are now 11-2 SU in their last 13 games. Golden State is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games at home against Memphis, but the Warriors are only 1-4 ATS in their last five games. They had failed to cover in four straight before Game 3 when the Warriors easily covered the seven-point spread after winning 142-112. The Warriors have also won their last six straight home games and are 35-10 at the Chase Center this season.
Two of the three games in the series have gone Over the total. That has been the trend for Golden State too. The Warriors have a 41-47-2 O/U record for the season, but in their last nine games, the total has gone Over in seven of them. Memphis is somewhat the opposite. The Grizzlies O/U record for the season is 46-41-4, but the Under has cashed in six of their last nine road games. Remember, Memphis is the top-scoring team in the NBA averaging 115.4 points per game. Combined with the Warriors’ recent offensive surge, tonight’s total of 224.5 is right in line with the first three games of the series.
Dillon Brooks will return for Memphis after serving a one-game suspension for his flagrant foul on Gary Payton II. Payton suffered a fractured elbow and will miss the rest of the series. He has not been ruled out of the playoffs though.