Game: Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
Odds: Grizzlies +8, Warriors -8
After a blowout loss to Memphis in Game 5, the Golden State Warriors return home with a chance to end its series with the Grizzlies. Memphis played inspired without its star, Ja Morant, as seven Grizzlies ended up in double figures in the 134-95 victory. Memphis shot 44 percent from three-point range and they will have to find a way to do it again tonight. The Grizzlies will not have Morant again as they attempt to send the series back to Memphis for a deciding Game 7.
The Warriors led the series after consecutive wins in Games 3 and 4 at home. Golden State won by 30 in Game 3 and scored 117, 142, and 101 points in their three wins during the series. They will need to keep pushing the pace in Game 6. The team’s stars, including Stephen Curry, will need to be on point tonight. Curry scored just 14 points in Game 5 as he and the rest of the Warriors’ starting lineup played 25 minutes or less. They should be well-rested for tonight’s game.
In the two prior games at the Chase Center, Curry had 30 and 32 points and Golden State didn’t really shoot that well. The Warriors are fifth in the NBA in both overall field goal percentage (47.2%) and three-point field goal percentage (36.5%). If Golden State shoots anywhere near those numbers tonight, the Warriors could very well end this series.
Golden State has been pushing the pace in the postseason. Over the last three games in this series, the Warriors average three more possessions per game compared to the regular season. The Warriors also average 118.8 points per game in the playoffs so far. Memphis has been a top-5 team in pace all season long and remembers they are the NBA’s top-scoring team averaging over 115 points per game. They will miss Morant thought.
Teams in Memphis’ situation tonight – facing elimination – typically don’t get blown out. Tonight’s spread seems a little large for this type of game, but Golden State is 27-18-1 ATS at home this season. Memphis, however, is capable of covering this number. The Grizzlies are 22-12-1 ATS in 35 games as an underdog in both the regular season and postseason.
Tonight’s total of 217.5 is the lowest of the series so far. As mentioned, Golden State is averaging over 118 points per game in the postseason and Memphis averages over 115. The pace may slow somewhat as the Grizzlies face elimination. The game totals have flipped back and forth between Over and Under with three games going Over the total and two games Under.
The total has gone Over in eight of Golden State’s last 11 games, but for the season the Warriors’ O/U record is 42-48-2. That record at home is 18-26-2. Memphis trends Over for the season (47-42-2 O/U). The Grizzlies have a 23-21-2 O/U record in road games this season.