Game: Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Odds: Warriors -2, Mavericks +2
Golden State travels to Dallas tonight as a surprising two-point favorite. The Warriors have just one win in their last five games and it was against a Portland team with a makeshift lineup. Golden State is just 2-6 SU in its last eight games with the other victory coming against a Lakers team that is a complete mess right now.
Dallas, on the other hand, has won four of its last five and eight of its last ten games. One of those victories was a 107-101 win over this very same Warriors team last Saturday. The Mavericks have really dominated the head-to-head series with the Warriors winning eight of the last ten games. This will be the fourth meeting this season. Dallas holds a 2-1 edge and is also 2-1 ATS in those three games. In the two wins, the Mavs allowed Golden State 101 and 82 points.
The Mavericks are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. They rank second in points allowed per game, giving up 103.4. In their eight wins over their last ten games, Dallas held five of the opponents to 99 or fewer points. The Mavs defense has really picked it up over the winter months. Over their last 28 games, Dallas is 21-7 SU and 19-9 ATS and has allowed opponents just 101.6 points per game.
On the offensive side, Luka Doncic continues to lead the Mavs. Doncic scores 27.5 points, grabs 9.1 rebounds, and dishes out 8.8 assists per game. After trading Kristaps Porzingis away, Jalen Brunson has taken on a bigger role in the offense and now averages 16.1 points a game.
The Warriors have always been a top-ten offense, but they have faded recently. Currently, Golden State ranks 10th in scoring (110.8 ppg). After an outstanding start to this season, looking at the Warriors’ last 41 games reveals this. They are 25-16 SU and just 15-23-3 ATS. The Warriors were favored in 33 of those games. Part of the problem is the offense has averaged 109.1 points a game over that stretch. The return of Klay Thompson has made a difference though as the Warriors are averaging 112.3 points a game over their last 17.
The Warriors defense, one of the top five in the NBA all season long, has also struggled recently. In their last eight games, Golden State has allowed opponents 110 or more points six times. That includes the 129 given up on Tuesday night in a loss to Minnesota. The Warriors are now 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. They are also just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against Dallas.
The Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last five games and 9-1 ATS in their last ten. The total has gone Under in seven of the Mavs’ last 10 games. For the season, the Mavs O/U record is 21-39-2. That includes a 7-23-1 O/U mark at home. In the series, the Over has hit in 11 of the last 15 head-to-head games.