Game: Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Odds: Warriors +3.5, Celtics -3.5
The Celtics and Warriors split two games in San Francisco and now the NBA Finals head to Boston where the Celtics will try and take a 2-1 lead in the series. After an amazing fourth quarter in a Game 1 win, some things were different in Game 2. The big difference was that the Celtics shot just 37 percent from the field compared to over 50 in Game 1.
Boston’s Al Horford, who hit 6-of-8 three-pointers and had 26 points in Game 1, was held to a single field goal in Game 2. Horford, Marcus Smart, and Robert Williams III each scored just two points combining for a total of six. In Game 1, the trio had combined for 52 points.
The series heading back to Boston may not provide the advantage the Celtics are looking for. Boston is 5-4 SU and 4-5 ATS in their nine postseason games at home. The Celtics have been much better on the road than at home during the playoffs. They are 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS away from TD Garden this postseason.
One of the keys tonight will be the two head coaches. Golden State’s Steve Kerr has held the advantage over Boston’s Ime Udoka. Kerr has made some outstanding halftime adjustments and it can be seen in the Warriors’ performance in the third quarter. In the two games so far, Golden State has outscored Boston 73-38 in the third quarter. Give Boston some credit though as they have limited the Warriors to 41 percent shooting from the field. Coming into the NBA Finals, Golden State was shooting 49 percent.
Golden State has not fared so well on the road in this postseason. They are 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS. Still, the Warriors have won 15 of their last 20 games and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight. Boston has won 13 of its last 19 games at home. The Celtics are 4-2 SU in their last six games. Boston has covered 13 of its last 19 games.
This postseason has not seen many close games. The Under has trended frequently because of a number of one-sided games. In those blowouts, the losing team tends to score in the 80s and 90s leading the total Under. That happened in Game 2 when Boston managed just 88 points. In the last ten games between these two teams, the average point total is over 216. However, in the last three games, the teams have averaged just 207 points.
It’s worth noting that Boston has done very well coming off a loss this playoff season. The Celtics are 6-0 SU and ATS after a loss this postseason. Boston’s average margin of victory in those games is 15.5 points. The Celtics would be wise to protect the basketball. In games after Boston committed 14 or more turnovers this postseason, they are 8-3 SU and ATS.