Game: Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
Odds: Nuggets +7, Warriors -7
Golden State looked especially strong in Game 1 of their first-round playoff series with Denver on Saturday. The Warriors won by 16 points with their best player, Stephen Curry, coming off the bench to contribute 16 points. Curry played only 22 minutes as his teammates Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson took control of the game. The Warriors’ defense also limited Denver to just 11-of-35 shooting from behind the arc and picked up the Game 1 victory.
The Warriors shot 52 percent from the field and Poole led the team with 30 points. He and Thompson combined to shoot 10-of-17 from three-point range. Thompson hit 5-of-10 threes and finished with 19 points. Curry, who was playing for the first time since March 16, came off the bench to hit 3-of-6 from behind the arc and contribute 16 points to the cause.
On the other end, Nikola Jokic was sluggish at times as he tried to carry Denver on his back. The reigning MVP scored 25 points and had 10 rebounds. The only other Nugget to come through in Game 1 was Will Barton who finished with 24 points. Denver players like Aaron Gordon and Monte Morris are going to have to add to the offense if the Nuggets are going to avoid a 0-2 start in this series.
With the win, Golden State is now 6-0 SU in its last six games. The Warriors are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight against Denver when playing at home. The Warriors were 42-37-4 ATS for the season and 24-16-2 ATS at home.
Denver is now 2-5 ATS in its last seven games. They have really done poorly against the Warriors with the 2-6 ATS mark against Golden State in road games and an overall record of 3-10 ATS in the last 13 games against the Warriors.
Denver trends to the Over. Ten of the Nuggets’ last 14 games have gone Over the total. Their road O/U record is 22-19-1 and one of the big reasons is their defense. On the road, Denver allows opponents to hit nearly 48 percent of all their shots. In three of the four quarters against Golden State on Saturday, the Warriors scored 30-plus points. That gave the Warriors their third Over in their last four games.
In Denver’s last six road games, including Saturday’s game, the Over has hit in five. Going back four games in the Nuggets-Warriors series, we find that the average final score is 233.3. That is roughly nine points higher than tonight’s total. Three of the last four Nuggets-Warriors games have gone Over the total.
For the season, Golden State does trend Under with a 36-45-2 O/U record. Remember, the Warriors have the fourth-best scoring defense in the NBA. Golden State allows 105.5 points per game.