Game: Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Odds: Mavericks +7, Jazz -7
Dallas evened up this series with a win at home on Tuesday night. It was just what the Mavericks needed. Playing without star Luka Doncic, Jalen Brunson scored a career-high 41 points and Maxi Kleber, who had gone cold from long range, hit eight three-pointers and finished with 25 points in a 110-104 Dallas victory. With the series shifting back to Utah, the big question is still the health of Doncic.
Heading into tonight’s game, Doncic is listed as questionable. Even if he does play, Doncic will likely not be 100 percent. The seven-point spread tonight reflects exactly that. Utah has been favored in each game so far and they really haven’t played all that well. Take Game 2 as an example. Donovan Mitchell scored 34 points, but his plus-minus rating was minus-14. Mike Conley played 22 minutes and missed every shot he took. Conley was held scoreless and was a minus-7 for the game. All five Utah starters had a negative plus-minus rating.
With the series moving to Utah, one would expect the Jazz to play better in front of their home crowd. For the season, Utah went 29-12 SU at home. The Jazz are a very impressive 14-2 SU in their last 16 games at home and they have done extremely well against Dallas at Vivint Arena. In the last 12 home games against the Mavericks, Utah is 11-1 SU.
The Jazz covered in Game 1 but not in Game 2. That gives Utah a 3-9-1 ATS record in its last 13 games. For the season, the Jazz had a 34-47-3 ATS record with a 17-22-2 ATS mark at home. Interestingly, Utah covered just one of its last nine games (1-7-1 ATS) against teams from the Southwest Division. Utah is also 1-6 ATS in the last seven games against Dallas.
Dallas has the third-highest cover percentage in the league this season. The Mavs are 48-34-2 ATS (58.5%) so far. They have covered seven of their last ten games (7-2-1 ATS) and, as mentioned, six of the last seven against Utah. The problem is that the Mavs have had a tough time beating the Jazz. In the last 19 games against Utah, Dallas has just six victories. Don’t forget, the Mavs have won just once in the last 12 games played at Vivint Arena in Salt Lake City.
Both of the first two games in this series have been relatively low-scoring. After an Under in Game 1, Game 2’s total adjusted downward leading to the Over. With the series back in Utah, it’s worth noting that both of the games played there in the regular season went Over the total. The total has actually gone Over in seven of the Mavericks’ last nine games. In games where Utah was a home favorite this season, the Jazz and their opponents averaged 217 points per game. That’s well above tonight’s total of 210.5.