Game: Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Odds: Celtics +3.5, Warriors -3.5
It’s now down to a best-of-three. Tied at 2-2, the NBA Finals flips back to the Chase Center in San Francisco where the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors will clash once again. Stephen Curry’s 43 points in Game 4 took down the Celtics who still remain 8-3 SU in their last 11 games against the Warriors. Golden State now has a chance to go up 3-2 with a home win tonight. Winning Game 5 of an NBA playoff series has been crucial in certain circumstances.
In NBA playoff series that have been tied 2-2 after four games, the team that wins Game 5 goes on to win the series 82.2 percent (180-39) of the time. In Boston team history, the Celtics have played in 48 best-of-seven playoff series that have been tied 2-2. They are 34-14 overall in those series, but they are only 6-6 when Game 5 is a road game compared to 28-8 when Game 5 is at home.
Golden State has played in four playoff series that were tied 2-2 after four games during Curry’s career. In those four Game 5s, the Warriors are 3-1 overall and they have gone on to win all four of the playoff series.
There are trends on both sides heading into tonight. Boston coming off a loss this postseason is one. The Celtics are 7-0 SU and ATS after a loss this postseason. Golden State has been very good at home this season. The Warriors have been so good they have only lost 11 of 52 games at the Chase Center this season. Two of those were to Boston.
One of the keys for the Celtics will definitely be turnovers. They have won only one game this entire postseason when they turned the ball over 15 times or more. So far, two games in the series have gone Under the total, and two have gone Over. Interestingly, Boston scored 115 or more points in its two wins and both games went Over. The Celtics have been one of the best defenses in the NBA all season long.
The Warriors held Boston to less than 100 points in Golden State’s two wins. Both of those games went Under the total. The Warriors had been averaging 118 points a game coming into this series. So far in the four games in this series, Golden State has yet to score more than 108 points. One of the reasons why is that Boston defense which has held the Warriors to 44.3 percent shooting from the field. Golden State was shooting 49 percent in the playoffs prior to the NBA Finals.
As mentioned, Boston has played in 12 Game 5s on the road in a playoff series tied at 2-2. The Celtics are just 6-6 in those 12 games. Boston is, however, 6-1 SU in the last seven such games. Golden State is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home. The only loss was to Boston.