Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies Betting Preview – 9/27

Sep 27, 2021

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Game: Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies 

Time: 8:40 PM ET 

Starting Pitchers: Josiah Gray vs. German Marquez 

Odds: Nationals +150, Rockies -158 

Nobody can blame Washington or Colorado for simply packing it in for the rest of the season. Neither team really had a shot at the postseason even back before the All-Star break. The Nationals have lost three straight and Colorado dropped four in a row. This will be the final home series for the Rockies and they are one of the best teams in the majors when playing at home. Plus, Colorado just took two of three from Washington last week. 

Colorado will start German Marquez against the Nationals. While Coors Field is not a very pitcher-friendly ballpark, it is for Marquez. The right-hander is 8-2 at home this season and the Rockies are actually 8-2 in his last ten starts. In his last two starts, Marquez has been knocked around a bit. He lasted just four innings in each start and gave up a total of 11 earned runs. Despite those performances, the Rockies bailed him out and won both games (though Marquez wasn’t involved in the decision). 

For the season, Marquez is 12-10 with a 4.27 ERA, which would be expected from a pitcher who starts roughly half his games in the most hitter-friendly stadium in the majors. Marquez’s opponent, Josiah Gray is just getting used to pitching in the majors. He won his first major league game in his last start. Gray pitched six innings against Miami allowing two earned while striking out eight in a 7-5 victory over Miami. Gray’s season record is now 1-2 and he has an ERA of 5.92. 

The Rockies have only won once in their last seven games. That was in a 10-5 win over the Dodgers. Surprisingly, six of those seven games were at home where the Rockies have one of the better records in the majors. Colorado is 46-32 at home this season. Their opponents in those six games were the Giants and Dodgers though.  

Not only does Colorado win at home, but it also has been very good on the run line. The Rockies have the best record against the spread at home – 47-31 – of any team in the majors. There is value on tonight’s run line with the Rockies -1.5 (+108).  

Tonight’s game total is set at 11.5, which may seem a bit high but it’s a typical number for a game in Colorado. Tonight’s humidity is low and there will be a wind blowing at eight miles per hour across the field from right to left. With the conditions in Colorado, one would expect a lot of Overs. It’s actually the opposite. The Under is 64-85-5 in all Colorado games and 33-43-2 in Rockies home games. 

The Rockies don’t have a 30-homer hitter for the first time since 2014. C.J. Cron has 27. The point here is that neither team really has a lot of power. With Marquez and his success at home, don’t expect Washington to put up a bunch of runs. The Under has hit in six of the last eight Rockies games and four of the last six against the Nationals.