Game: Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Time: 7:20 PM ET
Starting Pitchers: Erick Fedde vs. Huascar Ynoa
Odds: Nationals +200, Braves -205
The Braves own a 2.5-game lead over Philadelphia in the NL East and can pad that lead with a win over Washington tonight. Atlanta lost to the Nationals last night 4-2 and need to win games they are supposed to win. After this series, they will face Miami and Colorado in two more series where they can pad that division lead.
To get that win tonight, the Braves will put Huascar Ynoa on the mound. Ynoa has not been as strong as he was before his injury. He suffered a fractured hand and missed some time. Since then, his ERA has spiked up to 3.19, which is still solid but Ynoa was much better before the injury. What gives the Braves starter some confidence heading into tonight is the fact that Washington is not very good when facing right-handed pitchers.
The Nationals are one of the best teams in baseball against lefties with a .271 batting average. Against right-handers, that batting average drops to .253. While Ynoa has lost each of his last three starts, he will be facing a Washington lineup that has won just two games in its last 11. Plus, in those three losses, Atlanta combined to score just four runs. Ynoa should get more offensive support tonight.
One of the reasons why is Washington starting pitcher Erick Fedde. The Braves lost last night because the offense didn’t produce. Atlanta will have a great chance to get that offense back on track against a pitcher they have had success against in the past. In 96 plate appearances against Fedde, Braves hitters are batting a solid .353.
In his last two starts – both against the Mets – Fedde has been chased to the bench early. In his last start, he lasted just three innings allowing four earned runs as the Nationals lost 11-9. In the previous start, Fedde did go 5.1 innings, but he gave up five earned runs and Washington lost 9-4. The Braves have had success against Fedde in the past and, remember, they are eighth in MLB in runs per game averaging 4.88. In the three games prior to last night’s loss, Atlanta scored 6, 9, and 8 runs.
The Braves have only won four of their last ten games. Continuing on that pace will allow Philadelphia to gain ground in the NL East Division lead. Playing at home, the Braves are just one game over .500, but they are 53-41 when playing as the favorite.
The Over has trended in Braves’ home games. The Over is 36-25-6 in games played at Truist Park, but more recently the Under has hit in seven of Atlanta’s last nine games. Plus, Ynoa has been heavy on Unders this season. Each of his last four starts and six of his last seven appearances have had a total go Under. Ynoa will need to keep Juan Soto and Josh Bell quiet and if he can do that the Nationals aren’t likely to score much.