The professional handicappers at Oskeim Sports have the winning information you need before betting on Thursday’s MLB games. Oskeim’s MLB game previews and Betting Market Report gives you the winning edge.
Boston Red Sox (-150) at Pittsburgh Pirates
Analysis: Since August 1, 2011, road favorites of -148 or greater in August affairs with a total of less than 10.5 runs are 401-185 (+6.6% ROI) straight-up and 319-267 (+4.1% ROI) against the run line. Since 2008, favorites priced between -115 and -185 are 126-56 (+18.7% ROI) straight-up and +11.5% ROI against the run line from game 29 out following back-to-back wins. Since June 20, 2017, the Red Sox are 41-5 (+27.4% ROI) straight-up and 37-9 (+36.6% ROI) against the run line as large road favorites versus opponents with a worse winning percentage.
This season, non-divisional teams on Thursdays are 12-4 straight-up and against the run line coming off a win and over if the line is longer than the previous game. Since August 16, 2016, the Red Sox are 18-1 (+51.1% ROI) straight-up and 16-3 (+75.3% ROI) against the run line as road favorites following a come-from-behind win in games played after the All-Star break. Take Boston and invest with confidence.
Totals Alert: Since September 9, 2021, non-divisional teams coming off an over and loss are 20-4 UNDER on Thursdays if the total is higher than 8 and the line is shorter than +175. Since August 20, 2019, the Pirates are 21-10 UNDER following a home loss by five runs or more.
Pittsburgh Alert: Since August 16, 2021, the Pittsburgh Pirates are 11-0 straight-up and 7-4 against the run line following a home loss by five runs or more.
Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres (-1.5) (-160)
Analysis: Since 2010, certain July (or later) home favorites of -200 or greater in games 2 or 3 of a series are 516-145 (+10.0% ROI) straight-up and 396-265 (+10.4%) against the run line in games with a total between 6 and 10 runs if they are not coming off a loss. Since April 23, 2021, San Diego starter Yu Darvish is 16-7 (+13.8% ROI) straight-up and 15-8 (+13.0% ROI) against the run line if his team is unrested and used five or fewer pitchers in their previous contest. Since 2021, the Nationals are 0-18 straight-up and 3-15 against the run line with a starting pitcher coming off a win if (a) the line is longer than his last head-to-head matchup (b) the total is not 8 and (c) the line is longer than +160 or in between +103 and +139.
This season, non-divisional teams on Thursdays are 12-4 straight-up and against the run line coming off a win and over if the line is longer than the previous game. Finally, San Diego falls into a profitable 550-170 (+7.2% ROI) straight-up and 419-301 (+4.6% ROI) run line system that invests on certain large home favorites from game 40 out. Take the Padres and invest with confidence.
Betting Trends for Thursday, August 18
- Since 2019, divisional home favorites of -165 or greater are 229-81 (+9.4% ROI) straight-up and 174-136 (+9.5% ROI) against the run line following a loss.
- Since July 1, 2016, St. Louis starting pitcher Adam Wainwright is 15-0 straight-up and 13-2 (+90.3% ROI) against the run line as a favorite of greater than -125 following an outing in which he had seven or more strikeouts provided his team is not on an extended win streak.
- Since 2018, .380 or worse divisional road underdogs off an upset win over a divisional foe are 45-107 (-22.5% ROI) straight-up and 72-80 (-14.4% ROI) against the run line.
- Since August 22, 2019, the Houston Astros are 22-1 straight-up and 21-2 against the run line when their starting pitcher is coming off a win and the total is not 9. This situation is 20-0 straight-up and 18-2 against the run line if the line is shorter than +115.
- Since April 8, 2021, divisional home teams on Thursday are 22-2 UNDER if their starting pitcher is coming off a loss as a favorite in his last head-to-head meeting and the game is not in September. The total must be under 9.5 and the line shorter than +175 as well.
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