Game: Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Odds: Nationals +156, Mets -190
The Nationals find themselves in the midst of a 4-1 run, but now go up against their nemesis – the New York Mets. Washington and New York are two teams headed in opposite directions. The Nationals, which won a World Series in 2019, are headed for the NL East basement. The Mets, on the other hand, took over the NL East division lead earlier this year and haven’t looked back.
In the last 18 meetings between these two teams, the Mets have won 13 times. When the two teams play in New York, the Nationals have won just one of the last seven. The two teams have played seven times already this season. New York has won five. The Mets have the better pitching staff and the better hitting lineup. That’s why they have beaten the Nationals by an average of 3.6 runs in those five wins.
Much of the Mets’ success this season has been due to pitching. New York has two of the best pitchers in the majors in Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer, both Cy Young winners. Both pitchers have spent much of the season on the injured list though. That has given some opportunity to young pitchers like David Peterson, who gets the start today. Peterson is 2-0 with a 2.16 ERA. The Mets have won all four of his appearances this season. Peterson picked up the two wins in his last two starts and has 22 strikeouts in 25 innings pitched.
New York has won eight of its last 11 games, including a three-game sweep of the Phillies over the weekend. The offense has been cranking it up too. In the three wins over Philadelphia, the Mets totaled 21 runs. In the previous series against the Giants, New York lost two of three but scored 28 runs in the process. In their last six games, the Mets are averaging 8.2 runs per game.
It’s no surprise that the Over has hit in each of the Mets’ last six games and in all five of their last five home games. For the season, the Mets’ O/U record is 25-21-3 and 14-9-1 at home. That has not been the trend against the Nationals. In five of the seven games so far this season, the Under has hit. The Mets have averaged 4.29 runs per game against Washington yet the Under has still hit in five of seven games. That speaks to the lack of productivity by Washington and the quality pitching of New York.
The Nationals are just 3-8 SU in their last 11 road games. Like the Mets, Washington has put up some runs recently. The Nats rank 20th in the majors in runs per game, but over the weekend they took three of four games from Colorado and scored 28 runs in the process. As a result, the Over has cashed in six of Washington’s last eight games.