Game: Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
Odds: Blue Jays -140, Orioles +133
Total: 9.0 (-115)
Starting Pitchers
Toronto: Jose Berrios (8-4, 5.19 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 107 strikeouts)
Baltimore: Dean Kremer (4-3, 3.43 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 43 strikeouts)
Injuries
Toronto: Tim Mayza: 15-Day IL (shoulder), George Springer: 10-Day IL (elbow), Ross Stripling: 15-Day IL (glute/hip), Julian Merryweather: 60-Day IL (side), Tayler Saucedo: 60-Day IL (hip), Hyun-Jin Ryu: 60-Day IL (forearm), Nate Pearson: 60-Day IL (mono)
Baltimore: Tyler Wells: 15-Day IL (side), Jonathan Arauz: 10-Day IL (finger), Travis Lakins: 60-Day IL (elbow), Alexander Wells: 60-Day IL (elbow), Chris Ellis: 60-Day IL (shoulder), John Means: 60-Day IL (elbow)
Last Ten Games
Toronto: 5-5, .249 batting average, 3.93 ERA, outscored opponents by four runs
Baltimore: 7-3, .266 batting average, 3.89 ERA, outscored opponents by eight runs
Analysis
Since September 1, 2021, the Orioles are 1-14 (-83.7% ROI) straight-up and 6-8 (-7.6% ROI) against the run line as underdogs following a win as underdogs in which their starting pitcher threw more than four innings and issued two or more walks. Since September 25, 2020, the Orioles are a money-burning 88-148 (-7.0% ROI) as underdogs.
Baltimore falls into very negative 23-92 (-46.4% ROI) and 18-70 (-45.7% ROI) statistical profile indicators that date back to April 14, 2018, and invest against the Orioles when playing without rest versus opposing starting pitchers with a certain strikeout-to-walk ratio. The above indicators have all produced a substantial profit against the run line.
Since April 30, 2014, road favorites of -140 or greater in the last game of a series are 76-41 (+5.2% ROI) straight-up with a starting pitcher who lost his previous outing by one run. Since July 2, 2021, the Blue Jays are 15-3 (+41.0% ROI) straight-up and 11-7 (+21.1% ROI) against the run line following a loss in game 3 of a series.
Toronto falls into a very negative 9-25 system that invests against certain American League road favorites that are averaging 4.4 to 4.9 runs per game versus opposing starting pitchers whose ERA is 3.50 or better. This season, Baltimore is a profitable 23-10 (+16.6 units) in the second half of the season and 21-8 (+18.9 units) following four or more consecutive home games.
Since June 12, 2022, the Orioles are 22-7 (+51.2% ROI) straight-up and 21-8 (+27.0% ROI) against the run line as underdogs of +145 or less following a game in which they had five or more hits.
MLB Betting Trends for Wednesday, August 10
- Since September 28, 2018, the Texas Rangers are 16-61 (-43.4% ROI) straight-up and 29-48 (-30% ROI) against the run line as underdogs of +120 or more versus teams with a better winning percentage if they are coming off a road affair.
- Since July 1, 2015, the Colorado Rockies are 1-13 (-83.8% ROI) straight-up and 1-12 (-74.0% ROI) against the run line as favorites of -165 or less (or underdogs) following a win by 10 to 15 runs.
- This season, non-divisional road underdogs of +100 and +150 are 26-9 straight-up and 30-3 against the run line following a game in which they scored more than two runs and the total is not 8.5 runs provided the line is shorter than the previous game.
- Since 2019, non-divisional underdogs with a starting pitcher coming off a loss as a favorite and a loss in his previous start against the opponent are 27-13 (+51.0% ROI) straight-up and 30-4 (+48.0% ROI) against the run line.
- Since 2020, the Cincinnati Reds are 0-20 straight-up and 2-18 against the run line versus non-divisional opponents on Wednesdays if the line is longer than -130.
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