MLB Game Preview: St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves

Jul 4, 2022

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Game: St. Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves

Time: 7:20 p.m. ET

Odds:  Cardinals +145, Braves -175

Total: 9.5

The Atlanta Braves have won each of their last two series and head into this one with St. Louis on a run. Since June 1, the defending World Series champions are proving why they won it all last season. The Braves are 23-7 since the first day of June and have some big wins over the Giants, Dodgers, and Phillies during that span. The Braves take on a Cardinals team that is up and down. St. Louis has lost three of its last four, but the Cardinals are still just two games behind Milwaukee in the NL Central Division race.

Both teams can score. At the moment, the Braves and Cardinals are tied with the Red Sox for seventh in MLB in runs per game at 4.73. The Cardinals got shut out by the Phillies yesterday, but in five of their previous seven games, they scored at least five runs. Atlanta lost to Cincinnati yesterday but scored 13 runs in the previous two games against the Reds. Both of those were wins.

Kyle Wright will start for the Braves tonight. He is 9-4 with a 3.03 ERA. Wright has won his last two starts over San Francisco and Philadelphia. His last start was against the Phillies where he pitched seven innings, allowed just three hits, and gave up a single earned run. Tonight will mark just the third time in 15 starts that Wright enters a game with an ERA above 3.00.

Opposing Wright will be St. Louis pitcher Dakota Hudson. In his first season back from Tommy John surgery, Hudson has been just like his teammates – inconsistent. He’s 6-4 overall and has a 3.83 ERA. Hudson has won two of his last three starts beating Boston and Miami. In those three starts, Hudson has given up 10 earned runs across 14.1 innings. In the three starts prior, Hudson went seven innings in each game. In his last three, he hasn’t gone past the fifth inning.

The Braves have an advantage coming into this game on the 23-7 run. Plus, they are playing at home. Atlanta is 24-17 at home so far this season and they have won 10 of their last 13 at Truist Park. The Cardinals are 20-20 in road games this season and they have just four wins in their last 13 games away from home. St. Louis has just one win in its last seven games against the Braves.

Atlanta has won four of its last six games and six of its last seven against St. Louis. The Under has cashed in six of the Braves’ last nine games. Still, Atlanta trends Over with a 41-36-3 O/U record for the season. The Cardinals also trend Over with a 40-37-4 O/U mark. The total has gone Over in six of the last nine meetings between these two teams. The Over is 14-5 in the last 19 Cardinals-Braves games played in Atlanta.