Game: San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Odds: Padres +120, Dodgers -130
Total: 8
Just 1.5 games separate the Padres and Dodgers in the NL West right now. This weekend’s four-game series could go a long way in determining which team wins the division at the end of the season. San Diego will put its best foot forward and go with ace Joe Musgrove (8-1, 2.12) to start the series. Neither team has been all that great as of late. The Padres are 2-4 in their last six games. L.A. has won two of its last five.
Musgrove lost for the first time this season in his last start. Philadelphia roughed up Musgrove to the tune of six earned runs in six innings. It was the first time all season that Musgrove allowed more than two earned runs in a start. It was also just the second time the Padres lost a game that Musgrove started. San Diego is 11-2 in games that their ace has started this season. This will be Musgrove’s first start against the Dodgers this season.
L.A. took two of three games from the Padres earlier in the season. That gives the Dodgers an 11-1 SU record against San Diego in the last 12 head-to-head meetings. The Dodgers will put Mitch White on the mound. He is 0-1 with a 4.25 ERA and is splitting time in the majors and in Triple-A. In his last start last week against Atlanta, White gave up three earned runs in 4 innings. The Dodgers have lost each of his last three starts.
The Dodgers are the favorite despite the pitching matchup. Musgrove has 12 quality starts out of 13 total this season. His strikeout-to-walk percentage is 19.2 and he has a SIERA of 3.32. Plus, Musgrove has the best defense in the majors playing behind him. San Diego is No. 1 in outs above average this season.
The Dodgers are still without Mookie Betts, but they have won six of their last nine games to maintain their NL West lead. L.A. has beaten the Padres in six straight games at Dodger Stadium. However, the Dodgers are just 1-5 in their last six games against a division opponent.
The Padres, as mentioned, have won just twice in their last six games. They have also won just once in their last five games on the road. The Dodgers have the top scoring offense in MLB (5.08) and the Padres are in the top-10 (4.64, 10th). Despite all the scoring, both teams are among those trending Under. San Diego has a 34-41-2 O/U record so far this season. The Dodgers O/U mark is 30-38-6 this season. The total has gone Under in four of the Dodgers’ last six games.
Three of Musgrove’s last four starts have gone Over the total. The Padres won three of those four games and recorded two shutouts beating Milwaukee 7-0 and Colorado 9-0. Each of White’s last two starts has gone Under the total.