Game: San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
Odds: Padres +140, Dodgers -155
The top two teams in the NL West get together for a weekend series, the first one after the Padres made some major acquisitions at the MLB trade deadline. San Diego acquired Juan Soto, Josh Bell, Brandon Drury, and Josh Hader to bolster a lineup that already had Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Jake Cronenworth, and Jurickson Profar. The Padres won four of five games against Colorado to start the week. San Diego scored 32 runs in the process. The Padres might find scoring more difficult tonight as they will face Dodgers right-hander Tony Gonsolin.
Gonsolin is having the best year of his MLB career. He is 12-1 with a 2.41 ERA, but he has battled through his toughest stretch of the season recently. In his last three starts, Gonsolin has allowed 12 earned runs across 16 innings. That’s a 6.75 ERA which is far above what he had been doing in prior starts. Before giving up five earned runs to St. Louis on July 13, Gonsolin had not allowed more than two in his 16 previous starts.
What is interesting is that Gonsolin’s xERA is 3.03 and his xFIP is 3.78. Both of those numbers, compared to his 2.41 ERA, suggest that Gonsolin is due for some regression. He has definitely regressed in his last three starts and now he has to go up against a loaded San Diego lineup.
The Padres will start left-hander Sean Manaea who is 6-5 with a 4.25 ERA this season. Unlike Gonsolin, Manaea’s xERA is slightly lower at 3.97. He has won three of his last four starts. His last start came against Minnesota last Sunday. Manaea pitched six strong innings, striking out seven, and allowing just two earned runs.
Manaea will face a Dodgers lineup that is No. 1 in the National League in scoring. The Dodgers score 5.25 runs per game. Only the Yankees score more runs per game. The Dodgers swept four games against rival San Francisco to start the week. L.A. has now won five straight and eight of their last nine games.
The Dodgers have won 12 of their last 14 games at Dodger Stadium. They have also won nine of ten games against the Padres at home. The Dodgers are 35-15 at home this season and 30-20 ATS at home. The Padres are a strong road team this season with a 30-24 SU record and a 32-22 ATS mark. Lately though, San Diego hasn’t been as good away from home. The Padres are 6-13 in their last 19 road games.
The total has gone Over in eight of the Padres’ last 12 games. Like the Dodgers, the Padres’ trend Under for the season (49-55-3 O/U). Five of the Dodgers’ last seven games have gone Under the total. In the last seven games between the Padres and Dodgers, the Under has hit five times. The last time Gonsolin pitched against the Padres (July 1), he allowed one earned run and L.A. won 5-1. The total went Under.