MLB Game Preview: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

Jul 7, 2022

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Game: New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

Time: 7:10 p.m. ET

Odds: Yankees -165, Red Sox +140

Total: 8.5

The Red Sox are at home tonight against their biggest rival, the New York Yankees. Pitching has been a recent issue for Boston. After shutting out Tampa Bay on Monday, the Red Sox gave up 15 runs over the next two nights and lost the series to the Rays. Their pitching woes may continue tonight as Boston goes up against one of the many Yankees aces on the staff, Gerrit Cole.

For Boston, it will be Josh Winckowski who gets the start. He has been put in the rotation due to injury and across five starts, Winckowski has a respectable 3.12 ERA and some solid metrics to go with it. However, most of those numbers come from facing weaker lineups like the Cubs and Tigers. Winckowski is 3-1 since giving up four earned runs in his first start way back in May. He has not allowed more than two earned runs in a start since and he’s pitched at least five innings in each of those four trips to the mound.

Winckowski will have his hands full with a Yankees lineup that has been strong against right-handers. Aaron Judge continues to lead the majors with 30 home runs. Teammate Anthony Rizzo is fifth with 22. New York leads MLB in scoring too with an average of 5.13 runs per game. Yesterday in a win over the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Yankees exploded for 16 runs. It was their second double-digit scoring game in four days.

Cole is 7-2 with a 2.99 ERA this season. He is coming off a six-inning, two-earned run performance against Cleveland. The Yankees won the game 13-4. The Yankees have won five of Cole’s last six starts and they have won 12 of his 16 starts this season. Cole has allowed more than three earned runs just twice this season. The Yankees won one of those games and lost the other.

As good as Boston has been this season, they are just 3-6 SU in their last nine games. The Red Sox are 5-2 SU in their last seven games at home. The Yankees, on the other hand, have won seven of their last ten games. They have had the best record in baseball for most of the 2022 season. In the last 10 games with their biggest rival, the Yankees are 8-2 SU against the Red Sox.

As mentioned, the Yankees lead the majors in runs per game. Boston is seventh, averaging 4.67 runs per game. Despite their abilities to score, both teams trend Under this season. The Yankees have an O/U record of 35-44-3. The Red Sox O/U record is 32-41-9. Fenway Park is one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks in MLB. Even so, the Over is 16-20-3 in Red Sox home games.

Both teams are good against right-handed pitchers. The Yankees rank in the top-5 in wOBA and wRC+ against righties. The total has gone Under in four of Boston’s last five games and in six of the Yankees’ last eight.