Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants
Time: 9:45 p.m. ET
Odds: Brewers -110, Giants -110
Total: 6
It’s rare that MLB games have a set game total at 6, but that’s what happens when you get two Cy Young contenders battling it out against each other. Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes, last year’s NL Cy Young winner, and San Francisco’s Carlos Rodon will face each other tonight in the city by the bay. The Giants were fading in the NL West but found a way to win four of their last five games. They just took two of three games from Arizona scoring 20 runs in the process. Scoring against Burnes will be difficult though.
Burnes is now 7-4 with a 2.20 ERA. Milwaukee has won eight of his last 11 starts. Burnes has started a game against the Giants already this season. Back in late April, Burnes went 6.2 innings against San Francisco. He allowed just two hits and no runs, but the Brewers ended up losing 4-2. In his most recent start, Burnes went seven innings, allowed three hits and no runs, and the Brewers lost to the Cubs 2-1.
It will be up to Milwaukee’s hitters to give Burnes some support. The Brewers average 4.53 runs per game, which is good for 12th in MLB. Surprisingly, Milwaukee is among the leaders in home runs this season. The Brewers average 1.37 homers per game, which is fourth in MLB. Rowdy Tellez leads the team with 17 and he is one of eight Brewers with at least 10 home runs.
Hitting home runs against Rodon is something that doesn’t happen a lot. The Giants left-hander has only given up four homers this season. He is 8-5 overall and sports a 2.70 ERA. The Giants have won four of his last six starts. Minus a start against Arizona on July 4, Rodon has given up three earned runs in 36 innings in five starts. His last one was a gem. Rodon tossed a complete game giving up just three hits and one earned run to San Diego in a 3-1 Giants victory.
San Francisco is 4-1 in its last five games, but the Giants are just 2-5 SU in their last seven home games. Milwaukee has only won two of its last seven games, but the Brewers are 8-3 in their last 11 games on the road. Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in the last six games against the Giants in San Francisco.
The Under is trending for both teams. The total has gone Under in five of Milwaukee’s last six games. In the Giants’ last six games, the total has gone Under four times. In Rodon’s last seven starts, the Giants’ O/U record is 1-4-2. Burnes faces a lot of low numbers too, but in his last eight starts, the Over is 6-2.
Milwaukee tends to struggle with left-handed pitchers. They are 14-14 SU versus lefties and the Brewers have the eighth-worst lineup in MLB against left-handed pitching.