Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Odds: Brewers -125, Mets +105
Milwaukee has been off its game recently losing nine of its last ten games. The Brewers’ lead in the NL Central has dissipated and they lost the first game of this series with the Mets yesterday. Even worse, the Brewers were shutout 4-0. Today, they will be looking to ride the arm of ace Corbin Burnes to try and even up the series.
On paper, one might think Burnes is not having as great a year as he did in 2021 when he won the NL’s Cy Young award. Burnes is only 3-4, but that is more due to the Brewers’ struggles at the plate. Believe it or not, Milwaukee is third in the majors in home runs. However, the Brewers are just 18th in scoring and 25th in batting average. They don’t put enough runners on base. As a result, the Brewers have lost six of Burnes’ 12 starts. In two of those starts, Milwaukee failed to score and in two more they managed just two runs.
Underneath it all though, Burnes is doing what he did last season. In some cases, he’s even better. Burnes is once again among the MLB leaders in ERA at 2.48. He is striking out 11.4 batters per nine innings. Burnes is third in the majors in strikeouts with 92, but his last two starts were not that great. He lasted 4.1 innings against Philadelphia in his last start and just 3.2 in the previous one against San Diego. He allowed five earned runs against the Padres and took the loss in both games.
Burnes will face Mets P David Peterson. The left-hander is one of several arms that has stepped up in the absence of Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. Peterson is 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA, but he doesn’t go very deep in games. He went 3.2 innings in his last start on June 4. Prior to that, he went 4.2 innings on May 30 against Washington. The one thing that Peterson has received consistently in his starts is run support. In his three starts, New York scored 9, 13, and 13 runs.
Pete Alonso is a big reason why the Mets are a top-3 team in runs scored. Alonso is tied for second in MLB in home runs with 18. The first baseman is batting .289 with 59 RBIs. The Mets are second in runs per game (5.08) and sixth in OPS (.742). The bottom line is they can score.
It’s no surprise that the Mets are trending to the Over. In their last 20 games, the Over has hit in 13 of them. Milwaukee has seen the Over hit in four of its last six games. The Mets are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games and 9-0 SU in their last nine at home. The Brewers are just 1-5 SU in their last six road games, but they are 4-1 SU in their last five against the Mets.