Game: Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves
Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
Odds: Rockies +310, Braves -390
Total: 8.5
Colorado and Atlanta enjoyed an off day on Monday after both losing weekend series. Atlanta lost the final two games of its series with the St. Louis Cardinals after winning the first game on Friday. The Rockies dropped three straight to the New York Mets before earning a 1-0 win in the series finale on Sunday.
Tonight, Atlanta will try to rebound by putting its ace Max Fried on the mound. The Braves left-hander has been outstanding this season. He is 12-4 with a 2.52 ERA. He won each of his last two starts giving up a combined three earned runs across 15 innings. Fried also struck out 13 batters in beating the Pirates and the Mets. Since May 24, Atlanta has won 13 of Fried’s 16 starts and the lefty hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a game since June 14. He gave up four runs to the Washington Nationals, but the Braves won the game 10-4.
Since April 26, 2022, Fried is 13-1 (+37.2% ROI) straight-up and 10-4 (+28.1% ROI) against the run line as a favorite of more than -150. Fried gets just enough run support from an outstanding Braves lineup. Of his 24 starts this season, the Braves have 17 wins. In his last eight starts, Fried has pitched 51 total innings and allowed 13 earned runs. In five of those eight games, the total has gone Under. As a whole, those eight games averaged a total of just six runs.
Colorado will try and rebound as well tonight. They had lost four straight before the win on Sunday. The Rockies wills end right-hander Jose Urena to the mound. Urena has not enjoyed success this season like Fried. He has only started ten games for the Rockies, but he is 2-5 with a hefty ERA of 5.98. Urena’s last start was the worst of his career. He lasted just 1.1 innings against the Rangers allowing nine earned runs on nine hits.
Texas would go on to win that game 16-4. It was another Rockies loss with Urena on the mound. Colorado has lost six of Urena’s last seven starts and they have only won twice in his 10 starts with the team. The Rockies pitcher also has some history with the Braves. When he was pitching for Miami in 2018, Urena hit Braves slugger Ronald Acuna Jr. with a pitch. That started a bench-clearing brawl.
That game was one of Urena’s 16 career starts against Atlanta. In those games, he is 2-9 with an ERA of 6.50. In his last seven games that Urena started for Colorado, the game total has averaged over 10 runs per game.
Colorado is 1-4 SU in its last five games. The Rockies have also won just one of their last five games against the Braves and they are 1-7 SU in their last eight road games. The interesting thing about Colorado is that the Rockies are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games against the Braves played in Atlanta.
The Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 Rockies-Braves games. The Over is 3-1-1 in the last five games between the two teams.
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