Game: Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
Odds: Red Sox +155, Blue Jays -185
Just a half-game separates the Red Sox and Blue Jays in the AL East. Boston (42-31) holds the edge over Toronto (40-32) and both teams trail the New York Yankees (53-20) in what is likely the best division in baseball. Both teams played over the weekend, but the Blue Jays get the luxury of staying at home. The Red Sox had to travel after sweeping Cleveland over the weekend. Boston will also start Connor Seabold who will be starting for just the second time in his young MLB career.
The right-handed Seabold started one game at the end of last season. He pitched three innings against the White Sox and allowed two earned runs. This is his first appearance of 2021 and it comes against one of the better lineups in baseball. Five Blue Jays have double-digit home runs including slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (17 HR, 43 RBI). Toronto’s lineup has averaged 6.9 runs per game over its last seven games.
Opposite Seabold will be Toronto’s Kevin Gausman (5-6, 3.19). Gausman has much more experience than Seabold, but lately, Gausman hasn’t had much success. Toronto has lost each of his last four starts. Gausman has given up 11 earned runs in 18 innings across those four starts. In two of those starts, Gausman failed to make it past the third inning. The Blue Jays have won just twice in Gausman’s last eight starts.
While Gausman has more experience, he will face what is arguably the most difficult lineup for pitchers in MLB. Boston’s Rafael Devers is the best hitter in baseball right now. He is one of three Red Sox hitters that bat over .300. Devers (.334) leads Boston and Xanders Bogaerts (.330) and J.D. Martinez (.329) are not far behind. Devers also has 17 homers for a Red Sox offense that is now fifth in the majors in scoring averaging 4.81 runs per game. In the three wins over Cleveland on the weekend, Boston scored a total of 18 runs. In their last ten games, Boston has scored four or more runs eight times.
Boston is now 7-0 SU in its last seven games. The Red Sox are also 12-2 SU in their last 14 road games, but the Blue Jays have ruled Boston in the last six head-to-head meetings. Toronto is 5-1 SU in those six games and they are 4-1 SU in the last five games played in Toronto. The Blue Jays are 3-7 in their last 10 games overall.
Toronto (4.71) is also a top-10 scoring offense and the Blue Jays trend Over for the season with a 39-32-1 O/U record. Toronto’s home Rogers Centre ranks fifth among major league ballparks for extra-base hits and for total runs. Each of the Blue Jays’ last seven games have gone Under the total and 12 of the last 13 Toronto home games have also resulted in the Over.