Game: Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Odds: Diamondbacks +140, Padres -165
Total: 7
After sweeping the Giants and defeating the league-best Dodgers 7-1 in Game 1 of the series, the Padres appear to be finding their groove. They ultimately fell to Los Angeles in that weekend series, but they now have a fantastic chance to win at home against the Diamondbacks.
The Padres will host the Dodgers once more this weekend and hope to set themselves up for success by taking this series against Arizona. San Diego has been the big brother to Arizona this year, just as LA has been to the Padres and almost the entire National League.
The Padres have won nine of the 12 games between these clubs going into this series. Joe Musgrove, San Diego’s starting pitcher, hasn’t faced Arizona since the season’s opening series, but that shouldn’t be a problem. Musgrove has had a fantastic season ever since.
It wasn’t long ago that Musgrove was challenging Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins for the NL Cy Young award. Although the Miami ace has that award virtually locked up, the Padres have triumphed in four of Musgrove’s previous five starts.
The DBacks entered this series on a high after defeating the Milwaukee Brewers in a weekend series.
Merrill Kelly started against Milwaukee last Thursday and tossed a gem. Kelly pitched seven innings of shutout baseball, struck out seven, and Arizona won 5-0. However, Kelly also just experienced his worst month of the year in August.
Kelly hasn’t faced the Padres in a while and hasn’t seen their lineup since Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and Brandon Drury were added at the trade deadline. Given how San Diego has dominated the DBacks this season, Kelly might have some difficulty with the new-look Padres lineup.
The Padres and Diamondbacks have produced some low-scoring games this season. That should continue with the two starting pitchers tonight. Eight of their first 12 head-to-head meetings—including the most recent four straight – have totaled seven runs or fewer. The last three meetings have produced just 5.3 runs combined.
Four of the last six head-to-head games that were played in San Diego went Under the total. Given where these clubs stand in terms of home/road splits, all of that ought to make sense. The Padres have an O/U record of 26-37-1 in home games this season. That is interesting given the new additions to the Padres lineup after the All-Star break. San Diego actually has the seventh-lowest average runs per game at home in MLB this season.
In two starts against the Padres this season, Kelly has allowed a grand total of one earned run. In road games this season, Arizona ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs per game. When they leave the hitter-friendly confines of Chase Field, their offensive production suffers. The Under has hit in four of the Diamondbacks’ last five games. The Under has also hit in 12 of the last 18 games Arizona has played against a National League opponent.
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