Game: Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
Starting Pitchers: Shohei Ohtani vs. Tarik Skubal
Odds: Angels -126, Tigers +121
The Angels are a game under .500 after last night’s ninth inning heroics produced a victory over Detroit. Los Angeles continues to push to try and at least make itself relevant. They do have a number of series remaining this season that could help them get into the playoff picture.
It’s a long shot, but the Angels have this series to finish then will face Cleveland, Baltimore, and Texas twice before the season’s end. There are also two series against Seattle, which is 5.5 games ahead of LA in the AL West.
After last night’s win, the Angels are favored tonight. That’s because AL MVP candidate Shohei Ohtani gets the start. For the season, Ohtani is 7-1 with a 2.93 ERA. The thing is, his home-and-away splits are dramatically different. At home, Ohtani is magical with a perfect 5-0 record and an ERA of just 1.92. When he’s pitching on the road, he is 2-1 but his ERA jumps to 4.54.
Take Ohtani’s outing at Yankee Stadium on June 30. He lasted just 2/3 of an inning after giving up seven earned runs in an 11-8 Angels loss. Now, he has pitched better in his last two away starts giving up just one earned run, but the Angels lost one of those games at Oakland.
Some of the recent problems for the Angels are at the plate. Prior to last night’s ninth inning, LA had scored just seven runs in its previous four games. That’s part of the reason why they only have three wins in their last eight games.
While Tigers pitcher Casey Mize gets most of the praise in Detroit’s pitching rotation, Tarik Skubal has had himself a solid season. He’s been especially good in his last two starts. Skubal is 8-10 for the season with a 4.10 ERA, but his last two starts have been outstanding.
In 11 total innings against Baltimore and Boston, Skubal did not allow an earned run, struck out 10, and earned two victories. Despite the ERA above 4.00, Skubal leads the Tigers’ pitching staff with those eight wins.
With Jo Adell’s grand slam in the top of the ninth last night, the game total went Over. The Angels have trended to the Over all season long. The Angels are sixth in MLB in Over percentage (55%) with the Over at 66-54-1 in LA’s games this season. That’s why it is a bit of a surprise that the total goes Under 54 percent of the time when the Angels play on the road.
What is not a surprise is the fact that Detroit is a huge Under team at home in Comerica Park. The Under is 35-23-2 in Detroit home games this season. Comerica Park is considered one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in the majors. With Ohtani and Skubal on the mound and two lineups that don’t scare many pitchers, Under 8.5 could be in play tonight.