Game: Colorado State Rams at Utah State Aggies
Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
Odds: Rams -3, Aggies +3
Total: 58.5
It’s an interesting matchup in the Mountain West as 3-3 Colorado State heads to Logan, Utah, to take on the 4-2 Utah State Aggies. The interesting part is that the Rams are a three-point road favorite. The spread likely has more to do with both teams’ recent performances.
The Rams have won their last two games, both in the Mountain West. Colorado State beat last year’s conference champion San Jose State 32-14 and defeated New Mexico last week 36-7. Prior to those two wins, the Rams battled nationally-ranked Iowa before falling 24-14. With a win over Toledo prior to that, the Rams have now won three of their last four games.
Utah State, on the other hand, started the season with three straight wins. They won the season opener 26-23 against Washington State and picked up their first conference win over Air Force back in mid-September. Since then, the Aggies have struggled.
Head coach Blake Anderson’s team got blown out 27-3 by Boise State and then lost by two touchdowns – 34-20 – to BYU. Last week, the Aggies struggled all game long against a winless UNLV. Only a fourth-quarter touchdown by Utah State prevented the upset.
One of the big problems for Anderson and the Aggies is the run defense. Utah State is now allowing 206.5 yards rushing per game. Even UNLV had success rushing for 219 yards against the Aggies last week.
The Rams are a balanced offense and only score 24.7 points per game. Where Colorado State excels is on defense. The Rams are a top 10 defense in a number of statistical categories including total yards allowed and rushing yards allowed per game. CSU gives up fewer than 100 yards on the ground per game.
After averaging 41 points per game in their first three, Utah State has just 51 combined points in its last three games. Overall, the Aggies average 29 points a game and over 470 yards of total offense. The Aggies need to cut down on their mistakes if they are going to challenge the Rams’ defense.
Also intriguing in this matchup is that both teams seem to play better on the road. That would benefit Colorado State here. The Rams have actually covered the spread in all of their road games this season making them a perfect 4-0 ATS. Utah State did not cover in its last three games and has only covered in three of its past 10 home games. Colorado State is 6-3-1 ATS in the past 10 Rams-Aggies games.
Both teams also trend toward the Under. The Under has hit in four of Colorado State’s last five games. The Under is 5-2 in Utah State’s last seven games. The Rams-Aggies series also trends Under. In the last eight meetings between the two schools, the total has gone Under in six of them. Tonight’s total is 58.5, the lowest total in this game since 2016.