Game: Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans
Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Odds: Bills -6, Titans +6
Total: 53.5
The Buffalo Bills are playing like the best team in the NFL. The have the league’s No. 1-rated defense and the offense has put up 35 or more points in four straight games. Still, the Bills cannot underestimate their opponent tonight – the Tennessee Titans.
It was a year ago when the Bills were 4-0 and went into Nissan Stadium in Nashville and got their tails beat 42-16 by the Titans. Buffalo is well aware of that loss and is not looking for it to happen again. A victory tonight begins with stopping Tennessee RB Derrick Henry. The Titans star has rushed for 100 yards-plus in four straight games and leads the NFL in rushing with 640 yards and seven touchdowns.
The Tennessee offense is once again the reason why the Titans are 3-2. They rank in the top ten in total offense (389.2) and in points per game (26.4). The big problem for the Titans is on defense. Tennessee gave up 38 points to Arizona and 30 to Seattle. The Titans rank 24th in the league in points allowed per game (26.0). When you really examine what Tennessee has done so far this season, you will see that they have three wins against three teams that entered Week 6 with just three wins combined.
How the Titans defense is going to stop Buffalo is a big question tonight. The Bills lead the NFL in scoring averaging 34.4 points per game. Buffalo is sixth in total offense and QB Josh Allen has been outstanding. Allen has 1,370 yards passing and 12 touchdowns so far this season. He also has been effective running the football averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
Somehow, last year the Titans were able to play Kryptonite to Allen’s Superman. The Tennessee defense held Allen to just 18 yards rushing and picked him off twice in the passing game. On the flip side of that, the Bills defense held Henry to just 57 yards rushing. The defense that controls its opponent’s stars will have the best chance for success tonight.
Tennessee tends to have trouble covering the spread at home. They are just 2-4 ATS in their last six home games. The Titans have covered in their three wins and in those three victories they scored at least 25 points. In their two losses, the Titans scored 24 or less and did not cover in either game.
The Bills are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road. The Titans and their prolific offense trend toward the Over. The Over is 10-4 in Tennessee’s last 14 games, which includes three of its last four games. The Titans largest total of the season was 54 against Seattle. The 33-30 final went Over.
Buffalo’s largest total of the season was just last week in their game with Kansas City. The Bills won 38-20 resulting in the total going Over. The Bills are fifth in the NFL in second-half points this season. Tennessee has scored 10 or more points in the fourth quarter of three of its last four games.