Game: San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
Starting Pitchers: Ryan Weathers vs. Antonio Senzatela
Odds: Padres -125, Rockies +117
One look at the venue for tonight’s Padres-Rockies matchup tells you almost everything you need to know. Colorado plays in the confines of Coors Field, the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the majors. Sure, that means a hefty game total of 12 at most sportsbooks, but it also means the Rockies have a great shot at beating San Diego.
The Rockies have the second-best home record in baseball at 38-21. The only team better is the best team in the majors, the San Francisco Giants (40-18). The Rockies are horrible on the road (14-45) but play well against anyone when at home.
Colorado may also have a slight pitching advantage as right-hander Anthony Senzatela takes the hill. While he was not good early in the season, Senzatela has lowered his ERA by over a full run since mid-May.
That’s no easy task when pitching at Coors Field. Senzatela is only 2-9 overall and his ERA is 4.71 for the season. What’s missing in those numbers is how well the Rockies righty performs against good divisional opponents like San Diego. In his career, Senzatela is 7-3 with a 3.38 ERA against the Padres.
San Diego will call upon left-hander Ryan Weathers who is 4-5 with a 4.72 ERA this season. When comparing Weathers to Senzatela, one has to consider that Weathers pitched all season at sea level and not at Coors Field. Still, he has given up some big numbers.
More recently, Weathers has been awful. In his last three starts covering 11.2 innings, he has given up 20 runs. One of those starts was against Colorado when he gave up eight runs in just four innings…and that game was in San Diego.
The Padres do have Fernando Tatis Jr. back in the lineup. He played his first game since going on the IL yesterday and he delivered. Tatis hit two home runs to lead San Diego to an 8-2 win over Arizona. While Senzatela will not shut out the Padres, he has the ability to keep their lineup in check. Remember, last season he recorded an ERA of 3.44, which is very impressive considering the majority of his starts are at Coors Field.
The Rockies have just one win in their last six games, but this is a great opportunity to take a shot on a home underdog at +117. And, this isn’t just any home underdog. This is a Rockies team that wins over 64 percent of their home games. Colorado is 17-16 as a home underdog this season.
Totals bettors looking to capitalize might feel like 12 is a bit too high. The Padres are 10th in MLB in scoring averaging 4.72 runs per game. Colorado ranks 16th at 4.45. Both teams are surely capable of putting up a lot of runs. Remember though, that Weathers had an ERA of 0.55 during the first month of the season and Senzatela has only allowed more than three earned runs once in his last five starts.
Also, check the pre-game weather. A wind of 7-8 mph is expected to be blowing in from the outfield when the game starts.