Game: Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
Time: 9:45 PM ET
Starting Pitchers: German Marquez vs. Logan Webb
Odds: Rockies +183, Giants -190
The San Francisco Giants are the best team in baseball. They lead the NL West Division with a 73-41 record. The Giants have won four straight and eight of their last ten. Their opponent tonight, Colorado, is 22 games behind the first-place Giants. The Rockies enter tonight’s game having lost two straight to Houston, scoring just one run in the process. Still, there may be value on the Rockies as an underdog.
The reason to consider the Rockies revolves around starting pitcher German Marquez. He is easily the Rockies best pitcher and his 3.42 ERA isn’t as eye-popping as say Jacob deGrom, but when you consider that most of his starts are at hitter-friendly Coors Field…Marquez is pretty good.
Marquez is only 10-8 on the season, but he’d have a much better record if his team could hit when they play on the road. The Rockies are absolutely horrendous away from Coors Field. In fact, Colorado is the worst road team in the majors with a record of 13-42. The Rockies actually have a top-10 team batting average – .249, eighth in the league – but they don’t hit well on the road. Colorado’s batting average away from home is a league-worst .210.
Now, the reason to fade Marquez is easy. He has started three games against the Giants this season. The Rockies lost all three. In his last start against San Francisco, the Giants chased Marquez after just two-thirds of an inning. Marquez gave up six hits and eight earned runs before getting pulled, but that was well before the All-Star game. Since the break, Marquez has seven starts with an ERA of just 2.33.
Still, Marquez will go up against a Giants lineup that is even stronger now with the addition of former NL MVP Kris Bryant. The Giants are seventh in the league in scoring (4.95 runs per game) and have the third-best OPS (.767).
While most of the sharp money came in on Colorado on the money line, the total might be a better play. With Marquez’s general improvement since his first three outings against the Giants, he may be able to tame one of the best hitting teams in baseball. The problem is that Marquez will eventually give way to a bullpen that has the second-worst ERA (5.44) in the majors.
Logan Webb gets the start for the Giants. He has been a pleasant surprise with a 5-3 record and an ERA of 3.19 in his 15 starts this season. Webb has given up just four earned runs in his last three starts covering 18 innings. Tonight’s total is now at 7.5, and for good reason. The issue though is that the total has gone Over in 10 of the Rockies last 15 games and in each of the last six games against the Giants.