Game: Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies
Time: 7:05p.m. ET
Starting Pitchers: David Price vs. Kyle Gibson
Odds: Dodgers -133, Phillies +125
Last night, the pitcher’s duel between Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola was interrupted by rain. The two combined for 13 strikeouts before a rain delay in the bottom of the fourth sent both pitchers to the bench. The result was a 5-0 Dodgers win as Max Muncy and Corey Seager both homered.
Tonight, there is more value on the underdog Phillies than last night. That is because of the pitching matchup. Philadelphia right-hander Kyle Gibson has been exactly what the Phillies ordered when they traded for him at the deadline. In two starts for the Phillies, Gibson has pitched 12.2 innings, given up just three runs, and is 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA.
Overall for the season, Gibson is 8-3 with a 2.79 ERA. He has recorded 102 strikeouts and will be a key to the Phillies taking the NL East should they continue to maintain their lead on the top spot in the division. Philadelphia had won eight in a row before last night’s loss and is now 59-54 for the season.
Gibson will go up against David Price, who is nowhere near the pitcher he was even five years ago. If not a few injuries and the whole Trevor Bauer scenario, Price probably would have been relegated to the Dodgers bullpen. But, out of necessity, Price starts tonight.
His numbers – 4-1 record, 3.53 ERA – indicate he is pitching well, but don’t let those fool you. In his last three starts, Price hasn’t pitched more than 5.2 innings. He allowed a total of eight earned runs and the Dodgers lost all three games.
Price will have to face a red-hot Bryce Harper and company. Harper is hitting .300 with 20 homers and 45 RBI. Philadelphia will have to patch a few holes as Rhys Hoskins (24 HR, 68 RBI) just hit the 10-day injured list with a groin injury. Former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen (20 HR, 58 RBI) is just returning from the injured list and might not be in the lineup tonight. Still, there are enough bats to make Philadelphia dangerous against Price tonight.
With Gibson on the mound, Philadelphia is a strong home underdog at +125. The Phillies do very well as an underdog. They are 36-19 (65.5%) thus far this season as an underdog. When the Phillies are a home underdog, they are even better. So far this season, Philadelphia has been a home underdog 18 times. They are 13-5 (72.2%) in such situations. That is the second-best mark in the majors.
Totals bettors might take a look at the Under tonight. The game total is set at 10, which makes sense given the talent in each team’s lineup. Gibson has the ability to tame the Dodgers. If Price can go five or six innings, he will give way to the best bullpen in baseball.
The Dodgers relievers don’t give up many runs. Four of the last five Phillies games have gone Under and four of the last six Dodgers games saw the total go Under.