Kansas City Royals (-131) over Chicago White Sox
Investment Advice: Please list both Hector Santiago and Jeremy Guthrie
Analysis: Since being acquired by the Royals last July, Jeremy Guthrie is a perfect 3-0 with a 0.40 ERA in six starts against the White Sox. Guthrie is 2-0 with a 0.67 ERA in two starts against Chicago this season, while allowing no home runs in 44.7 innings pitched overall in this series. I also like the fact that Guthrie is 5-1 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home this season where he is averaging seven innings per start. Look for Guthrie to continue his dominance over a struggling Chicago squad that is batting .241 with a .291 on base percentage in 2013 (3.6 runs per game), including hitting a woeful .241 with a .285 on base percentage versus division opponents (3.1 runs per game) and .240 with a .285 on base percentage versus right-handed starters (3.6 runs per game). Guthrie is also supported by an outstanding Kansas City bullpen that owns a 2.82 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, including a 2.28 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at home and a 2.12 ERA and 1.22 WHIP versus division foes.
From a technical standpoint, Chicago is a money-burning 13-27 (-13.8 units) on the road, 2-10 (-9.2 units) on the road in June and 9-23 (-13.8 units) following five or more consecutive road games, whereas the Royals are 12-6 this month and 26-16 (+14.1 units) in this series, including 14-7 (+7.7 units) at home. Finally, Guthrie is 10-0 (+10.9 units) at home with a total between 8 and 8.5 runs, 14-4 (+11.1 units) versus division foes and 19-12 (+9.8 units) at night over the last two seasons. With Guthrie standing at a perfect 6-0 with a 1.77 ERA and 1.10 WHIP versus division opponents this season, take Kansas City and invest with confidence.
