Free Sports Picks: Low-Scoring Affair Projected at Yankee Stadium

Jul 20, 2018

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On Friday, Oskeim Sports previews the interleague game between the New York Mets and New York Yankees.  Oskeim recommends taking the UNDER 8.5 runs as one of his free sports picks for July 20.

Oskeim also suggests investing on the Oakland Athletics as one of his free sports picks for Friday evening.

These two teams resume play after the All-Star break on two entirely different trajectories.  The Yankees are battling Boston for first place in the American League East, while the Mets are destined for the basement in the National League East.

New York is 53-24 in its last 77 games overall and has won 20 of its previous 26 series (three splits).  The Mets are just 28-54 in their last 82 games and finished the month of June with a woeful 5-21 record.

Since left fielder Yoenis Cespedes landed on the disabled list on May 16, the Mets are a money-burning 20-37.  Cespedes has been rehabbing in the Gulf Coast League and could return to the Mets during this series.

Mets’ right-hander Noah Syndergaard toes the rubber with a 2.97 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 2.63 FIP and 2.94 xFIP in twelve starts this season, a span covering 69.2 innings of work.  His metrics are elite across the board: 10.21 K/9, 1.94 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9 and a 23.3% hard contact rate.

Syndergaard does a nice job in keeping the ball on the ground (46.3% GB%) and owns one of the best ERAs in the league despite owning an unlucky (and unsustainable) .346 BABIP.

The UNDER is a profitable 15-4-1 in Syndergaard’s last 21 starts versus teams with a winning record, 18-6 in his previous 24 starts during game 1 of a series and 5-1-1 in his last seven outings overall.

Yankees’ right-hander Domingo German has pitched much better than his 5.49 ERA would indicate.  The 25-year-old owns an unsustainable 64.8% strand rate so positive regression towards his 3.83 xFIP and 3.65 SIERA is expected.

German boasts a 10.53 K/9 rate and has been solid inside the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium.  Specifically, German owns a 3.39 xFIP and an 11.54 K/9 rate across 41.1 innings at home in 2018.

In his lone career start against the Mets on June 9, 2018, German allowed three runs across six innings, striking out 9 while issuing no walks. He should have little trouble containing an anemic Mets’ lineup that is averaging just 3.9 runs per game this season (.671 OPS).

The Mets are also averaging 3.1 runs per game in interleague play (.621 OPS) and 3.4 runs over their last seven games (.608).  Despite posting a 5.16 ERA in 29.2 June innings, German finished the month with a 3.75 FIP and 3.49 xFIP.

An incredibly-unlucky 60.7% strand rate caused the talented hurler’s surface statistics to implode.  I also like the fact that German is backed by an excellent New York bullpen that enters the second half of the season with a 2.69 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, including a 2.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at night and a 1.59 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in interleague play.

The UNDER is 4-1 in German’s last five starts against .499 or worse opposition.  The UNDER is 21-6-2 in the Yankees last 29 games versus right-handed starters, 21-6 during game 1 of a series, 15-5-1 in their last 21 games against teams with a losing record and 27-10-2 in their previous 39 games overall.

The Mets have gone UNDER the posted total in eight of their last 10 interleague clashes.  With the UNDER representing an 80% winning proposition when the Mets face off against an American League East foe, take the UNDER 8.5 runs as one of Oskeim Sports’ free sports picks for Friday, July 20.

Oskeim Sports’ Free Sports Picks for July 20:

  • New York Mets/New York Yankees UNDER 8.5 runs
  • Oakland Athletics (-125) over San Francisco Giants

Be sure to check back daily for more free sports picks from Oskeim Sports, the #1 documented sports handicapping firm in the nation.  Also, don’t forget to visit Roto Radar to become a winning (and profitable) fantasy sports player!