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Free Sports Picks: Behind Greinke, Arizona Looks to End Slide

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Oskeim Sports previews the MLB game between the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday, July 22.  Oskeim recommends laying the price with the Diamondbacks as one of his free sports picks for Sunday.

Oskeim also suggests taking the Minnesota Twins as small road favorites as one of his free sports picks for July 22.  Be sure to visit daily for MLB free sports picks, NFL free sports picks, NCAA Football free sports picks, NBA free sports picks and NCAA basketball free sports picks.

Veteran right-hander Zack Greinke is having another excellent campaign, posting a 3.18 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in twenty starts.  The 34-year-old also owns a 2.56 ERA and 1.07 WHIP at home, a 3.10 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in afternoon affairs and a 1.93 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over his last three starts.

Greinke’s underlying peripherals substantiate the above results: 3.49 FIP, 3.36 xFIP, 9.17 K/9 and a 1.70 BB/9.  He has been outstanding inside the confines of Chase Field where he owns a 2.80 FIP, 3.32 xFIP and a 0.60 HR/9 rate.  Greinke has logged a 2.62 ERA and held opposing batters to a .376 slugging mark since June 1.

After posting a 2.97 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 3.74 xFIP in June (36.1 IP), Greinke has compiled a 1.93 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 2.08 FIP and 3.13 xFIP across 18.2 innings in July.  Greinke is backed by a very good Arizona bullpen that owns a 3.01 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 2018, including a 2.80 ERA and 1.15 WHIP at home and a 2.59 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in afternoon affairs.

From a technical standpoint, Arizona is a profitable 22-8 in Greinke’s last 30 home starts, 5-1 in Greinke’s previous six outings and 4-0 in his last four starts against .501 or greater opposition.  The talented righty should have success against a Colorado squad that has really struggled under the afternoon sun.

Specifically, Colorado is a money-burning 13-21 (-8.9 units) in day games this season (4.3 runs per game, .295 OBP, .679 OPS).  The Rockies take the field with one of the game’s worst bullpens despite investing heavily on relievers during the offseason.

Colorado’s relief staff owns a 5.22 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 2018, including a 5.78 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in day games and a 5.67 ERA and 1.46 WHIP versus divisional foes.  That’s not comforting news to starter Antonio Senzatela, who was just activated from the 10-day disabled list.

The 23-year-old posted a 4.68 ERA, 4.52 FIP and 4.28 xFIP in 2017, a span covering 36 appearances (20 starts).  He doesn’t possess swing-and-miss stuff (career 6.65 K/9) and takes the mound this afternoon with a 5.34 ERA, 4.21 FIP and 4.59 xFIP across 30.1 innings in 2018.

Senzatela has a 36.6% hard contact rate and a 5.93 K/9 rate, both of which could be problematic inside Chase Field.  He relies on a two-pitch repertoire about 93% of the time (94 mph fastball and an 82 mph slider) and isn’t a legitimate major league starter at this juncture of his career.

The Rockies are 1-6 in Senzatela’s previous seven road starts and he allowed nine earned runs on 8 hits across five innings in his lone start against Arizona last season.  Take Arizona behind one of the best starting pitchers in the game as one of Oskeim Sports’ Free Sports Picks for Sunday, July 22.

Oskeim Sports’ Free Sports Picks for July 22:

  • Arizona Diamondbacks (-171) over Colorado Rockies
  • Minnesota Twins (-133) over Kansas City Royals