Oskeim Sports previews Thursday’s NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Round game between Texas Tech and Michigan. Oskeim recommends taking the points with the Red Raiders as one of his free sports picks for March 28.
This matchup involves two of the best coaches in the land – Chris Beard for Texas Tech and John Beilein for Michigan. My math model only favors Michigan by 0.68 points in this game so getting a basket with the Red Raiders is good value.
Texas Tech applies to a very good 56-24 ATS system that invests on certain neutral court underdogs entering off back-to-back games in which they limited opponents to sixty points or less.
The Red Raiders are grossly undervalued by the betting market as evidenced by the fact that they are 10-2 ATS in their last twelve games overall and 8-0 ATS in their previous ten clashes with teams with a winning record, including 7-0 ATS against .601 or greater foes.
Texas Tech’s success begins at the defensive end of the floor (1st-nationally in defensive efficiency) where it plays a stifling man-to-man scheme, double-teams ball handlers off the pick-and-roll and attacks 3-point shooters.
Texas Tech forces a plethora of turnovers (14th-nationally in turnover percentage defense) and dominates the paint with forward Tariq Owens. The 6-foot-10 senior is one of the nation’s most efficient shot blockers and his inside presence allows the Red Raiders to push opposing teams off the three-point line (13th-nationally in 3-point percentage defense; 29.9).
Owens is the second-best free throw shooter on Beard’s squad and has excelled on the offensive glass, giving Tech valuable second-chance opportunities.
The Red Raiders also possess an underrated offense (34th-nationally in efficiency) led by Jarrett Culver, who is averaging 18.3 points and 6.2 rebounds per game this season. Tech won its first two NCAA Tournament games by an average of 17.5 points and are shooting 47.3 percent from the field in 2018-19.
I also like the fact that the Red Raiders are shooting 75.4 percent from the foul line away from home this season, whereas the Wolverines are converting 70.3% of their free throws in 2018-19.
More than anything else, Texas Tech is a math play at the current line of plus-2. Grab the Red Raiders as one of Oskeim Sports’ free sports picks for Thursday and invest with confidence.
Oskeim Sports’ Free Sports Picks for Thursday, March 28:
- Texas Tech (+2) over Michigan
- Florida State vs. Gonzaga UNDER 148 points