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On Thursday, Oskeim previews the MLB game between the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins. Oskeim recommends taking the Rays as small road favorites as one of his free sports picks for July 12.
Tampa Bay arrives in Minnesota as one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning five straight and nine of its last 12 games overall. Blake Snell toes the rubber for the Rays with a 2.10 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in nineteen starts this season.
The talented southpaw also owns a 3.08 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the road, a 1.54 ERA and 0.95 WHIP at night and a 0.42 ERA and 0.87 WHIP over his last three starts. Snell’s peripherals remain strong, including a 3.36 FIP, 3.48 xFIP and 3.59 SIERA, together with a 10.24 K/9 rate.
The 25-year-old posted a 1.74 ERA and 1.13 WHIP across 31.0 innings in June. Those results have been followed by a 2.24 FIP and 2.25 xFIP across 14.2 innings of work this month (11.66 K/9, 0.61 HR/0, 57.6% groundball rate).
I also like the fact that Snell owns a 3.33 xFIP on the road where he has garnered a 51.0% groundball rate. In his most recent outing against the Twins, Snell allowed just one run on five hits with six strikeouts in seven innings.
Tampa Bay’s bullpen enters tonight’s affair with a 3.48 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 2018, including posting a 3.03 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at night and a 3.79 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over its last seven games. In contrast, Minnesota relievers own a pedestrian 4.41 ERA and 1.37 WHIP this season, together with a 4.30 ERA and 1.35 WHIP at night and a 4.15 ERA and 1.30 WHIP at home.
Technically speaking, the Rays are a profitable 4-0 in Snell’s last four starts and 6-1 in his last seven outings following a quality appearance in his last start. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is 9-3 in its previous twelve games against right-handed starters.
Minnesota right-hander Kyle Gibson has struggled at home this season where he owns a 4.44 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 5.06 FIP across 50.2 innings. The 30-year-old has posted a 4.80 FIP in July with a 4.50 BB/9 rate and a 38.2% hard contact rate.
Let’s also note that Gibson is 1-5 with a 6.81 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in seven career starts against the Rays, including yielding four earned runs in 6 1/3 outings on April 21. The Twins are just 3-7 in Gibson’s last ten starts, 1-4 in his last five starts against American League East foes and 0-7 in his previous seven outings after yielding five or more runs in their last game.
Finally, Minnesota is a money-burning 0-7 in its last seven games against .501 or greater opposition. Take the Tampa Bay Rays as one of Oskeim Sports’ free sports picks for Thursday, July 12.
Oskeim Sports’ Free Sports Picks for July 12:
- Tampa Bay Rays (-121) over Minnesota Twins
- Washington Nationals/New York Mets UNDER 7 runs
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