Thank you for stopping by to read Oskeim’s Free Sports Picks and Betting Report on this Saturday’s college football games. Oskeim’s free sports picks have a historical win rate of 55.1% so you can feel confident betting his opinions on the college gridiron.
Please find below Oskeim’s free sports picks for Saturday, October 14:
Mississippi State (-23.5) over BYU
College football teams that suffer back-to-back losses after starting the season 3-0 are generally solid investments, especially when they are coming off a bye week.
Specifically, these well-rested (and angry) squads are 12-3 ATS since 1980, including covering the spread in eight of the last 9 circumstances outlined above. Mississippi State falls squarely within this system in that the Bulldogs commenced the 2017 season with three straight wins before dropping consecutive contests
Mississippi State falls squarely within this system in that the Bulldogs commenced the 2017 season with three straight wins before dropping consecutive contests to Georgia and Auburn prior to their bye week.
The Bulldogs now face a reeling BYU squad that is a money-burning 0-7 ATS in its last seven games (0-6 ATS this season) and 0-7 ATS in its last seven games against SEC opposition. The Cougars’ lone win this season came in Week One against FCS foe Portland State, a 20-6 triumph (at home) that failed to cover the 37.5-point spread.
BYU’s anemic offense is 0.7 yards per play worse than average (4.4 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 5.1 yards per play to a mediocre attack). Overall, the Cougars are averaging just 11.7 points and 253 total yards per game in 2017, which isn’t good enough to move the ball against an above-average Mississippi State defense.
Overall, the Cougars are averaging just 11.7 points and 253 total yards per game in 2017, which isn’t good enough to move the ball against an above-average Mississippi State defense that rates 0.3 yards per play better than average.
The Bulldogs’ defensive weakness is in the backfield where opposing quarterbacks are averaging 8.2 yards per pass attempt. However, BYU’s quarterback carousel has been 1.2 yards per pass play worse than average this season (5.3 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.5 yards per pass attempt to a mediocre quarterback).
The Cougars arrive in town with the 116th-ranked passing offense and the 126th-ranked team in passing efficiency. BYU also owns the 126th scoring offense in the land, together with the 124th-ranked offense in terms of time of possession.
While BYU possesses a solid defense (0.4 yards per play better than average), the Bulldogs should be able to move the ball at a good clip in this game. Mississippi State is averaging 43.0 points and 510 total yards per game at 6.5 yards per play and 11.9 yards per point at home this season.
The Bulldogs’ punishing ground attack (5.7 yards per rush attempt against teams that would combine to allow just 4.0 yards per play to a mediocre group of running backs) will ultimately wear down an overmatched BYU front seven.
Let’s also note that BYU is yielding 33.5 points and 383 total yards per game at 11.4 yards per point on the road in 2017. Finally, Mississippi State takes the field with legitimate revenge after suffering a 28-21 overtime loss at BYU last year.
With Mississippi State standing at 11-4 ATS versus independents, lay the number with the avenging home squad as one of Oskeim Sports’ Free Sports Picks for Saturday, October 14.
Oskeim Sports’ Free Sports Picks and Betting Preview:
The following games have attracted sharp money (i.e. professional money) in the first half of this week:
- Navy (opened +4; now +3 at many sportsbooks);
- UCLA (opened +1.5; now favored at many sportsbooks);
- North Texas (opened +4; now +2.5 at many sportsbooks);
- Central Michigan (opened +10; now +7.5 at most sportsbooks)
Good luck with your investments on Saturday!