On Wednesday, June 6, Oskeim Sports previews the MLB game between the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays. Oskeim gives a small lean on Toronto as one of his free sports picks.
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The Yankees arrived in Toronto on Tuesday and proceeded to win the series opener 7-2 behind Miguel Andujar’s first career grand slam and a three-run blast by Aaron Hicks.
Last night’s win improved New York’s road record to 17-9 in 2018, including winning eight of its last 11 road affairs overall. New York sends right-hander Sonny Gray to the mound, who owns a 5.50 ERA, 4.68 FIP and 4.70 xFIP in eleven starts.
Gray has struggled with his control this season (4.53 BB/9) but has also been unlucky with batted balls in play (.320 BABIP). The 28-year-old has been significantly better on the road this season where he owns a 3.67 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 3.00 FIP across 27.0 innings of work.
The month of May was not one of Gray’s best periods on the mound as he posted a 5.16 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 5.01 FIP in 22.2 innings. He finished the month with a 36.2% hard contact rate, a 14.1% walk rate and a 1.59 HR/9 rate.
In two previous outings against Toronto this season, Gray allowed a combined six runs on 12 hits and 7 walks in 7 1/3 innings (7.32 ERA). Overall, Gray owns a 3.09 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in ten career starts against the Blue Jays, including going 2-3 with a 2.31 ERA in six career outings at the Rogers Centre.
Technically speaking, the Yankees are just 4-9 in Gray’s last thirteen starts against American League East foes, 1-7 in Gray’s last eight outings following a Quality Start and 2-6 in his previous eight starts on four days of rest.
After posting a 1.86 ERA, 3.67 FIP and 2.94 xFIP in Triple-A Buffalo, a span covering 29.0 innings, Toronto right-hander Sam Gaviglio has performed well under the bright lights. Gaviglio toes the rubber with a 3.32 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 4.17 FIP and 3.35 xFIP in five appearances this season, three of which were starts.
While the sample size is small (21.2 IP), one has to be impressed with Gaviglio’s 9.14 K/9 and 1.66 BB/9 rates. The crafty 28-year-old does a nice job in keeping the ball on the ground (49.2% GB%; career 49.% GB%) and does not allow batters to square up on his offerings (30.0% Hard%).
Gaviglio is backed by a decent Toronto bullpen that owns a 3.62 ERA and 1.28 WHIP at home, a 3.18 ERA and 1.34 WHIP versus divisional opponents and a 3.60 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in evening contests.
Gray is also supported by a very good New York bullpen that enters tonight’s affair with a 3.25 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 2018, including posting a 3.06 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the road and a 3.16 ERA and 1.27 WHIP at night.
While the price is appealing with Toronto, I am concerned by the fact that the Blue Jays are just 12-18 at home this season, including losing nine of their last 10 games at the Rogers Centre.
Even more concerning is the fact that Toronto has gone 31 games without winning two in a row, which is tied for the third-longest stretch in franchise history. The Blue Jays are 8-21 in their last 29 games, 0-6 in their last six divisional affairs and have dropped five straight during game 2 of a series.
With that said, the Yankees fall into a very negative 20-34 system that invests against certain road favorites with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.50 or greater on the season.
Toronto applies to a solid 28-18 situation that invests on certain underdogs against an opposing pitcher with an ERA of 4.70 or greater on the season.
I am not thrilled with Wednesday’s MLB card and would only give a small lean with the Toronto Blue Jays as one of my free sports picks for June 6.
Oskeim’s Free Sports Picks for Wednesday, June 6:
- Toronto Blue Jays (+130) over New York Yankees
- St. Louis Cardinals (-194) over Miami Marlins
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