Oskeim’s Free Sports Pick for Sunday: Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox

Jul 16, 2017

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For Sunday, Oskeim previews the MLB game between the Seattle Mariners and Chicago White Sox.  Oskeim also provides a free sports pick.

Seattle right-hander Andrew Moore was a two-time All American at Oregon State before being selected by the Mariners with the 72nd pick in the 2015 Draft.

In three Major League starts, a span covering 21.0 innings of work, the 23-year-old has posted a 3.86 ERA, 5.72 FIP and a 5.54 SIERA, together with a non-existent 29.4% ground ball rate (not good when pitching in Chicago’s hitter-friendly ballpark).  In fact, Moore has surrendered five home runs this season.

Seattle’s bullpen continues to be a major disappointment, compiling a 4.27 ERA overall and a 4.85 ERA away from the friendly (and spacious) confines of Safeco Field.   Let’s also note that the Mariners are a woeful 19-41 in the last 60 meetings in this series and 15-43 in the last 58 affairs in Chicago.

The home team is 12-4 in umpire Mark Ripperger’s last sixteen games behind the plate. While I am not a fan of Chicago southpaw Derek Holland, he has been serviceable at home this season where he owns a 3.12 ERA with a 22.5% strikeout rate.

With that said, sports bettors should be aware of the fact that Holland’s peripheral numbers are alarming: 5.54 FIP, 5.01 xFIP and a 4.85 SIERA.  His hard contact rate is at a career high (38.2%), while his command continues to decline (3.73 BB/9).  Home runs have also been an issue for Holland as evidenced by his 1.87 HR/9 rate this season.

Those numbers should improve against a Seattle squad that is just 8-17 in their last 25 games versus left-handed starters.  Finally, before the commencement of this series, the Mariners’ last series win against Chicago came in August of 2007.  The Mariners went 0-10-1 over 11 series, posting a combined record of 8-28.

Take the Chicago White Sox at plus-money as Oskeim’s Free Sports Pick for Sunday, July 16.

Oskeim’s Free Sports Pick: Chicago White Sox (+110)