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Free NFL Picks: Andrew Luck, Colts Invade MetLife Stadium

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Oskeim Sports previews Sunday’s NFL game between the Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets. Oskeim recommends taking the Colts plus the points as one of his free NFL picks for Sunday, October 14.

Oskeim also provides free NFL picks in the following games: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals and Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins.  Be sure to visit Oskeim’s Blog on a regular basis for more free NFL picks!

Recency bias has given us value on the road underdog as the look-ahead line in this game was New York -1 before the Colts lost to New England Thursday night and the Jets destroyed Denver last Sunday.

My math model only favors the Jets by 1.63 points in this game and Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck is an amazing 22-4 SU and 21-5 ATS following a straight-up and against-the-spread loss, including 13-0 SU and 12-1 ATS versus .499 or worse opposition.

Indianapolis is one of my strongest technical investments of the week as NFL that won five or fewer games the previous season are 3-15 SU and 0-18 ATS at home following a home win in which they committed at least two turnovers.

Since 1998, the Jets are 0-7 SU and ATS at home following a win by thirteen or more points versus teams that are giving up 375 or more total yards per game on the season.

The Colts are a perfect 10-0 ATS in games in which they averaging 24 or more points over their last three contests provided they are off a loss in which they punted two or more times. New York is 0-7 ATS since November 30, 2008 as home favorites versus an opponent that outgained them by 100 or more total yards in the previous meeting.

Let’s also note that New York is 3-13 ATS after yielding 6.0 yards per play or more in consecutive games since 1992.  Luck will also benefit from the likely return of starting left tackle Anthony Castanzo, who is expected to make his season debut against the Jets.

Meanwhile, New York is expected to be without two of its best cornerbacks in Trumaine Johnson (quad) and Buster Skrine (concussion), which is good news for Luck, who threw for 365 yards and three touchdowns against the Patriots last Thursday night.

With Indianapolis standing at 35-17 ATS following a loss, 30-12 ATS versus teams with a losing record and 11-2 ATS in its last thirteen road games against teams with a losing home record, grab the points with the Colts as one of Oskeim Sports’ free NFL picks for Sunday and invest with confidence.

Oskeim Sports’ Free NFL Picks for Sunday, October 14:

  • Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) over New York Jets
  • Washington Redskins (+1) over Carolina Panthers
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) over Cincinnati Bengals