Oskeim Sports provides a free NFL betting preview on Super Bowl 53 between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams. Oskeim has published a free NFL betting preview each week during the regular season and we hope you enjoyed his analysis throughout the 2018-19 NFL season!
Super Bowl Betting History
Super Bowl LIII marks the first time in NFL history that fans will have the opportunity to wager on the game at legal sportsbooks. According to the American Gaming Association, an estimated $6 billion will be wagered by Americans on the Super Bowl, the vast majority of which will be done illegally.
Following the United States Supreme Court’s decision striking down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992, seven states – Delaware, Mississippi, New Jersey, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia – have legalized sports betting.
More money will be bet on Super Bowl LIII than any other single game in American sports. Since 1991, bettors have sustained a net loss of $173,525,334 on the Super Bowl at Nevada’s regulated sportsbooks.
Point Spread Chaos
Minutes after the New England Patriots won the AFC Championship game, BetCris opened the Los Angeles Rams as 1.5-point favorites in Super Bowl LIII. Seventeen minutes later, money flooded the betting market, causing the Patriots to go from underdogs to 2.5-point favorites.
South Point’s sportsbook director, Chris Andrews, was forced to move New England to -3 on Tuesday afternoon.
After over $100,000 in wagers came in on the Rams, Andrews was left with no other choice but to move the line back to Patriots -2.5. Keep in mind that the first few days of betting account for approximately 1 percent of the Super Bowl handle, so the point spread is likely to bounce back and forth up until kickoff.
Super Bowl Performance Breakdown
Favorites are 33-18 SU and 25-25-2 ATS in Super Bowl history. Favorites of three points or less are 7-6 ATS. Concerning totals, there have been 26 OVERS, 24 UNDERS and 1 PUSH (Super Bowl I did not offer a total).
Underdogs are 12-4-1 ATS in the past seventeen Super Bowls; underdogs have won the title outright in five of the past 7 Super Bowls. A startling 24 Super Bowls have been decided by 14 or more points, while eight have been decided by three points or less.
Super Bowl Systems, Trends & Angles
- Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 38-13 SU & 35-13-3 ATS;
- Teams that average more passing yards per attempt are 41-11 SU & 35-14-3 ATS;
- Teams that win the time of possession battle are 37-15 SU & 36-13-3 ATS;
- The straight-up winner is 43-6-3 ATS in the previous 52 Super Bowls;
- The underdog has never covered a point spread without winning on a Super Bowl line of 5.5 or fewer points;
- The NFC is 27-25 SU & 27-22-3 ATS all-time in the Super Bowl;
- The average winning score is 30.4 points per game. The average losing score is 16.3 points per game;
- Fourteen of the last 15 Super Bowls have been decided by fourteen points or less;
- Teams that scored fewer than fourteen points are 0-19 SU & ATS in Super Bowl history.
Referee Trends for Super Bowl 53
The head official for Super Bowl 53 is John Parry. During Parry’s officiating career, favorites are 85-80-4 ATS, while OVERS are 92-75-2. New England is 7-6 ATS in games in which Parry’s crew has been wearing the stripes. The Rams are a perfect 7-0 ATS in games in which Parry served as the head official.
NFL officials threw 4,057 flags during the 2018 regular season, compared to throwing 4,044 in 2017-18 and 4,180 in 2016-17. Parry’s crew averaged 15.8 flags per game this season, finishing with the league’s second-highest number of flags for roughing the passer (11), the 4th-most flags for offensive holding (59) and the sixth-most for pass defense-related penalties (41).
To put these numbers into context, there has been an average of 12.5 penalties in games that Parry has officiated in his career. Over that same period, the NFL averaged 12.6 penalties per game. Interestingly, Parry was the referee for Super Bowl 46 between the Patriots and Giants.
Penalties should not play a major role in Super Bowl 53 as the Patriots (9th), and Rams (6th) were two of the least penalized teams on a per game basis during the regular season. However, New England was the most penalized team in the NFL on special teams.
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