Oskeim Sports previews Sunday’s college basketball game between Michigan State and Purdue. Oskeim recommends taking the points with the Boilermakers as one of his free NCAA Basketball picks for Sunday, January 27.
Purdue welcomes its highest-ranked opponent to visit Mackey Arena in over two years and looks to end the Spartans’ 21-game Big Ten Conference regular-season winning streak on Sunday.
Since the start of the 2014-15 season, Purdue is 12-2 against nationally-ranked teams in Mackey Arena. The lone losses came to No. 3-ranked Villanova in 2016 (76-73) and No. 14-ranked Ohio State in 2018 (64-63).
The Boilermakers are an incredible 57-4 (.934) inside the friendly confines of Mackey Arena since the beginning of the 2015-16 campaign, which is the second-best home mark in the nation over that span.
Purdue is 36-4 (.900) in conference home games over the last 3+ seasons and has won eleven straight in Mackey Arena by an average of 19.4 points per game. Only three games have been decided by single-digits during that span.
The Boilermakers’ prolific attack (ranked sixth nationally in offensive efficiency) is averaging 81.4 points per game at home this season, shooting 48.5 percent from the field and 38.7 percent from beyond the arc.
Under Matt Painter, Purdue has been one of the best offensive teams in America, ranking in the nation’s top 25 in offensive efficiency in six of the last nine seasons.
Purdue has also played well defensively at home where it’s limiting opponents to a mere 60.7 points per game on 39.5 percent shooting from the floor.
Overall, Purdue is 9.9 points per game better than average offensively (78.2 points per game against teams that would combine to allow 68.3 points per game to a mediocre offense) and 7.2 points per game better than average defensively (68.2 points per game to teams that would combine to average 75.4 points per game against a mediocre stop unit).
From a technical standpoint, Purdue is a perfect 9-0 ATS at home after winning four of its last five games and 36-19 ATS at home following a road win, whereas the Spartans are just 5-14 ATS away from home versus .501 or greater opposition after the midway point of the regular season.
Finally, my math model only favors Michigan State by 1.61 points in this game so we are getting some value together with the strong fundamental and technical situations favoring the Boilermakers.
Grab the points with the live home underdog as one of Oskeim Sports’ free NCAA Basketball picks for Sunday, January 27.
Oskeim Sports’ Free NCAA Basketball Picks for Sunday:
- Purdue (+3) (-110) over Michigan State
- Temple (+3) (-110) over Cincinnati
Be sure to visit Oskeim’s award-winning Blog on a daily basis for more free NCAA basketball picks!