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Oskeim Sports’ Free MLB Betting Preview & Sports Pick

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I’m taking the Kansas City Royals as my free sports pick for Tuesday, September 27.  

Minnesota right-hander Jose Berrios has struggled in his rookie campaign, posting an unsightly 8.88 ERA and 1.97 WHIP over twelve starts (48 2/3 innings).  The 22-year-old also owns a 7.92 ERA and 1.68 WHIP on the road and a 7.71 ERA and 2.05 WHIP over his last three outings.  

Berrios’ peripherals are equally disturbing as he toes the rubber with a 6.55 FIP, 5.48 xFIP and a 5.20 SIERA in 2016.  

The young hurler also has a 7.14 FIP and 5.64 xFIP on the road and a 6.17 FIP and 5.70 xFIP in the second half.   A lack of command and control has certainly contributed to Berrios’ struggles as evidenced by his 14.5% walk rate (6.12 BB/9) on the road and 14.0% walk rate (6.17 BB/9) in September.  

The long ball has also hampered Berrios’ progress as he owns an alarming 2.52 HR/9 rate on the road and a 3.09 HR/9 rate in September.

Technically speaking, the Twins are 0-7 in Berrios’ last seven starts.  Minnesota is also a money-burning 16-35 versus teams with a winning record, 5-16 in their last 21 road games, 1-10 in game 1 of a series, 1-12 in its last thirteen road games versus right-handed starters and 21-52 versus division foes.  

Kansas City is 21-10 versus division opponents, 38-17 at home versus right-handed starters and 4-1 in Ian Kennedy’s last five starts versus .499 or worse opposition.  These trends further enhance our sports pick on the Royals.

Let’s also note that the Royals are 36-15 in this series, including 26-10 at home and 4-0 in Kennedy’s last four starts against the Twins.  Kennedy is 4-1 with a career 3.34 ERA and 1.11 WHIP versus Minnesota, including going a perfect 3-0 with a 2.31 ERA this season.  

Finally, Kennedy’s 2.36 ERA since July 30 leads the American League (68 2/3 IP, 18 ER). Conversely, Berrios is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in two starts against the Royals this season and has only registered one quality start in 12 outings in 2016.  

Take Kansas City as Oskeim Sports’ Free Sports Pick for Tuesday, September 27.    

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