Oskeim Sports provides free MLB picks on Tuesday, May 1. Oskeim recommends taking the Giants as nominal home favorites as well as grabbing the Yankees as substantial road underdogs.
San Francisco southpaw Andrew Suarez was drafted three times, rejecting Toronto as a ninth-rounder in 2011 and then Washington in 2014 after the Nationals picked him in the second round.
San Francisco drafted Suarez in 2015 and the 25-year-old has spent the majority of the past two years in the Giants’ minor league system.
Suarez possesses a middling repertoire that includes an 89-91 mph fastball with late movement and a mid-80s slider that also flashes late break. The lefty has excellent command of both pitches, keeping them down in the zone and away from hitters.
Suarez posted a 3.55 ERA and 3.96 FIP in 88.2 Triple-A innings last season and started the 2018 campaign at the same level. In three starts, Suarez posted a 1.08 ERA and 3.23 FIP across 16.2 innings before being recalled to make tonight’s start against the hapless Padres.
San Diego is averaging 4.0 runs per game this season (.653 OPS), including averaging just 3.8 runs per game on the road (.638 OPS) and 4.3 runs per game against left-handed starters (.650 OPS). The Padres have struggled against left-handed starters this season, hitting just .217.
San Francisco possesses a solid bullpen that owns a 3.21 ERA at home and a 2.95 ERA in evening affairs. I also like the fact that the Giants’ offense has come alive recently, averaging 5.1 runs over the last seven games.
The Giants now face right-hander Tyson Ross, who finished last season with a 7.71 ERA, 6.18 FIP and 6.28 xFIP in twelve appearances (10 starts).
Ross has been plagued by injuries, missing virtually all of 2016 to shoulder problems and spending last season recovering from thoracic outlet surgery.
Ross is 0-2 with a 4.58 ERA on the road this season but finally looks healthy as evidenced by his 3.64 ERA, 3.09 FIP and 3.32 xFIP through 29.2 innings.
However, Ross is 1-2 with a 4.33 ERA in six games (four starts) at AT&T Park during his career. San Diego has had the Giants’ number recently, winning last year’s season series 12-7 and took 3 of 4 earlier this season.
“They beat us up pretty good at their place,” Nick Hundley said of the games in San Diego. “It’s good to beat them. We haven’t played well against them. We’re playing a lot better now.”
San Francisco has won seven of its last 9 games overall, including Monday’s thrilling 6-5 win in which the Giants scored three runs off San Diego closer Brad Hand.
From a technical standpoint, San Francisco is 5-0 in its last five games with umpire Hunter Wendelstedt behind home plate, whereas the Padres are 0-5 in their previous five games with Wendelstedt calling balls and strikes.
Finally, home teams are 13-3 in Wendelstedt’s last sixteen games behind home plate.
With San Diego standing at just 4-13 versus .501 or greater opposition and 7-19 against left-handed starters, take the surging Giants as one of Oskeim’s free MLB picks for Tuesday, May 1.
Oskeim’s Free MLB Picks for Tuesday:
- San Francisco Giants (-124) over San Diego Padres
- New York Yankees (+155) over Houston Astros