Oskeim Sports previews one of tonight’s baseball games and provides sports bettors with a total of two free MLB picks. Oskeim’s free MLB picks have a documented 55.1% win percentage since 2007.
Baltimore applies to 46-17, 43-16, 40-13 and 38-12 systems that invest on certain American League teams in competitively-priced games (+125 to -125) versus a starting pitcher who is coming off a game in which he allowed seven or more runs.
Baltimore starter Chris Tillman is a profitable 47-36 (+21.1 units) as an underdog of +150 or less, 67-43 (+19.4 units) at home and 15-5 (+10.5 units) at home during the first half of the regular season.
The Orioles are 29-13 in Tillman’s last 42 starts versus teams with a losing record, 23-5 in Tillman’s last 28 home outings versus .499 or worse opposition and 11-1 in his last twelve starts with six days of rest.
Let’s also note that Baltimore is 4-0 in Tillman’s last four starts with umpire Kerwin Danley behind home plate, while the Royals are 1-8 in their last nine trips to Camden Yards.
Kansas City right-hander Ian Kennedy is coming off the worst season of his professional career, posting a 5.38 ERA, 5.61 FIP and 5.25 xFIP in 30 starts in 2017. His numbers were dreadful across the board, from a 1.99 HR/9 rate to a 41.7% hard contact rate.
The veteran hurler toes the rubber tonight with a 2.92 ERA, 3.57 FIP and 3.95 xFIP but those numbers have been aided by a fortuitous 81.5% strand rate. Kennedy continues to give up too many fly balls (33.6% GB%) and batters are routinely squaring up on his pedestrian offerings (40.0% Hard%).
Kennedy finds no help from Kansas City’s imploding bullpen, which enters tonight’s game with a 6.12 ERA and 1.59 WHIP, including a 7.24 ERA and 1.71 WHIP on the road. Kennedy is 0-2 with a 6.89 ERA and 1.97 WHIP in four career starts against the Orioles, including allowing a combined seven earned runs in his last seven innings of work in Baltimore (2 starts).
Meanwhile, Baltimore starter Chris Tillman takes the mound with a 2.77 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in two home starts this season. Outside of those limited numbers, Tillman is an unqualified train wreck. Tillman posted a 6.10 K/9, 4.94 BB/9 and an alarming 2.32 HR/9 in 93 innings last year. Tillman actually owns a higher walk rate (4.97 BB/9) than strikeout rate (4.62 K/9) this season!
Tillman now faces a Royals’ lineup that is 4-16 versus right-handed starters against whom they are batting .254 with a .692 OPS (3.7 runs per game). In his previous two home starts against Kansas City, Tillman allowed a combined four earned runs in 12 2/3 innings of work.
With Kansas City standing at 7-19 in game 3 of a series, 9-19 in its last 28 games overall and 0-4 in Kennedy’s last four starts against American League East foes, take the Orioles as one of Oskeim Sports’ free MLB picks for Thursday.
Totals Bettors: Since 2013, when the total is listed at 8 or higher, the UNDER is a profitable 76-45-5 in Chris Tillman’s starts. In Tillman’s 33 career home starts in the months of March, April and May, the UNDER is 23-9-1.
Oskeim Sports Free MLB Picks for Thursday, May 10:
- Baltimore Orioles (+103) over Kansas City Royals
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-165) over Cincinnati Reds