Free Football Picks: Georgia Southern, Troy Clash in Statesboro

Nov 9, 2018

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Oskeim Sports previews Saturday’s college football game between Troy and Georgia Southern.  Oskeim recommends taking the Eagles plus the points as one of his free football picks.

Oskeim also provides free football picks in Saturday’s affair between South Carolina and Florida.  Oskeim suggests grabbing the points with the Gamecocks as one of his free football picks for November 11.

After a season-defining upset over Appalachian State as a double-digit underdog on November 3, Georgia Southern was still hungover when it clashed with Louisiana-Monroe last Saturday. The Eagles lost (44-25) as 7.5-point favorites and now return home looking to secure their eighth win of the 2018 campaign.

The Eagles are a mission team under first-year head coach Chad Lunsford, who took over for Tyson Summers midway through last season after Summers was fired. Lunsford served as the Eagles’ special teams coach before assuming the interim head coach role last November.

Under Lunsford’s leadership, Georgia Southern handed South Alabama its first shutout loss in program history (52-0) and upset Louisiana 34-24 the following week. The players chanted “WE WANT LUNS” in the locker room following the victory, prompting the school to name Lunsford the Eagles’ permanent head coach.

Lunsford made an excellent hire in offensive coordinator Bob DeBesse, who served as New Mexico’s offensive coordinator from 2012-17. New Mexico’s ground attack finished ranked in the top five on four separate occasions under DeBesse’s tutelage and he has committed himself to the option with the Eagles.

Georgia Southern’s option attack is averaging 260 rushing yards per game at 5.1 yards per attempt against teams that would combine to allow 4.8 yards per rush play to a mediocre offense.

The Eagles are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS at home this season where they are averaging 36.2 points and 315 rushing yards per game at 6.2 yards per rush attempt.

Georgia Southern’s Ground Attack (National Rankings):

  • 83.79% rush play percentage (#3)
  • 254.1 rushing yards per game (#8)
  • 5.1 rushing yards per attempt (#27)

I like investing in conference home underdogs that possess solid ground games because it allows them to control time-of-possession and shorten the game. The Eagles possess two additional advantages in this game that could easily sway the outcome.

First, Georgia Southern is converting 84.62% of its field goal attempts (#21). Second, the Eagles are one of the least penalized teams in the country.

Specifically, Georgia Southern is averaging just 5.1 penalties (#28) and 44.5 penalty yards per game (#22). In contrast, the Trojans are ranked 107th in penalties per game (7.9) and 118th in penalties per play (0.06).

Finally, the Eagles take excellent care of the ball, ranking 2nd in giveaways per game (0.5). Troy is averaging 1.9 giveaways per game (#102), which is music to the ears of a Georgia Southern defense that is ranked first in the nation in takeaways per game (2.8).

With Georgia Southern standing at 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games, 4-1 ATS in its previous five games following a loss and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series, take the Eagles as one of Oskeim Sports’ free football picks for Saturday, November 10.

Oskeim Sports’ Math Model Projection: Troy at Georgia Southern (-2.23)

Oskeim Sports’ Free Football Picks for November 10:

  • Georgia Southern (+1.5) (-110) over Troy
  • South Carolina (+6.5) (-110) over Florida